Cheltenham Betting / Jack Houghton / 04 January 2010 / Leave a comment

Most of the big names have made their first runs and Mr Houghton has seen enough to open his book - so who are his backs and lays for the big races? Read on

"In the staying hurdle division, I keep opposing Big Buck’s, and keep paying out. But whilst the horse does keep winning, he is yet to post a time to indicate he is as good as race reporters seem to think. There are at least three likely World Hurdle opponents that have run faster on the clock and, three months’ out from the race, I’m happy to oppose him again at the ludicrously short price of [1.74]."

Sri Lanka look huge value to beat India in the second match of the Triangular Series on Tuesday. Although losing two-nil in a recent test series in India, Sri Lanka have by far the best one-day form of late and, at [2.3], have to be supported. The Betting Challenge is having £30 at the price and fully expects to maintain its 100 per cent (winning) cricket betting record.

Sri Lanka will be helped by playing in the first match of the series, for which they are long odds-on favourites to beat Bangladesh. That will prepare them well for a clash with an India team that has looked woeful in shorter format games. Early exits from the World Twenty20 and Champions Trophy, and a subsequent 4-2 defeat in a one-day series against Australia, India have advertised their bowling and fielding frailties. They are yet to appoint a full-time bowling coach and it's hard to see them putting the Sri Lankan batsmen under the required pressure to win.

With that a certain first winning bet of the New Year - propelling the Betting Challenge back into profitability - and the snooker Masters starting next weekend to improve things further, now feels like a good time to pause and consider some longer-term bets. So clicking cursors at the ready: here begins my Cheltenham Festival ante-post portfolio.

Much has been made of Kauto Star's Boxing Day King George win and, visually at least, it was mighty impressive. However, whilst the handicap ratings' brigade are keen to dub it the best jumping performance since Arkle - the victory being assigned a stratospheric figure in some quarters - the clock tells a slightly less ebullient story. True, the performance was phenomenal, but "only" about as phenomenal as Kauto Star has managed before. In fact, I have it a pound below his lifetime best. On the other hand Denman - Kauto Star's chief rival for Gold Cup honours - has put in a lifetime best of late: his Hennessy win putting him five pounds' clear of the rest of the division.

With this in mind, Denman has to be the Gold Cup value and I'm having £20 on at [3.2]. I also expect Imperial Commander - if able to take his chance - to be closer than some expect, but I reckon his race-day Betfair SP will be better than the currently available [22.0], so am happy to wait to get involved.

Master Minded is the dominant two-mile chaser of his generation and [2.86] looks far too big a price - even taking into account the horse's current rib injury. I'm having £20 on.

In the staying hurdle division, I keep opposing Big Buck's, and keep paying out. But whilst the horse does keep winning, he is yet to post a time to indicate he is as good as race reporters seem to think. There are at least three likely World Hurdle opponents that have run faster on the clock and, three months' out from the race, I'm happy to oppose him again at the ludicrously short price of [1.74]. I'm laying him for £40.

Of the showcase races, that just leaves the Champion Hurdle. Celestial Halo was the best horse in last year's race. Poorly ridden to finish second, the time figures suggest he has improved this season and, provided he is ridden with more restraint, come March, he should win. Binocular will likely provide the stiffest opposition, with the rest of the market principals either short on form to justify their price, or seemingly better in different conditions than they will likely face at the Festival. The Betting Challenge is having £30 on at [13.0].

This week's bets:
£30 BACK Sri Lanka at [2.3] against India in Triangular Series.
£20 BACK Denman at [3.2] in Gold Cup.
£20 BACK Master Minded at [2.86] in Champion Chase.
£40 LAY Big Buck's at [1.74] in World Hurdle.
£30 BACK Celestial Halo at [13.0] in Champion Hurdle.

Tags: Big Buck's, Celestial Halo, Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham Festival, Cheltenham Gold Cup, Denman, Kauto Star, King George VI Chase, Master Minded, World Hurdle