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Cheltenham Ante-post Betting: Twist might not be so magic after all

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Simon Rowlands finds reasons to doubt current Champion Chase favourite...

I mentioned last week some of the principles of assessing form in handicaps, such as that winners are usually proving themselves to be better than their handicap marks by virtue of winning while persistent losers are usually proving themselves to be worse than their handicap marks by virtue of losing.

Whiel it is unlikely that a race will have attracted only badly handicapped horses, it is especially unlikely that a valuable handicap with lots of runners and plenty of finishers will prove easy pickings. This not only obeys common sense but is borne out by experience.

There are countless precedents that enable us to evaluate handicap form to a high degree of accuracy after allowing for field size, margins between horses, weights carried compared to handicap marks, class of contest, time of race and more besides.

It's not so easy where non-handicaps are concerned. However, similar principles apply of using past information from the same and similar races to guide us to a reasonable assessment of a current piece of form. The margin for error is usually greater with non-handicaps, that's all.

This may all seem very academic, but the weekend just gone provided a good example of some of the principles and problems involved. How you view the form of the Tingle Creek Chase could well determine whether you are on a good bet or a bad bet in the months ahead, and that's not academic at all.

On the one hand, Twist Magic's success would normally have a handicapper reaching for the superlatives. The race usually falls to a good horse - Kauto Star and Moscow Flyer in the previous four years - from a strong field, and Twist Magic won with authority.

On the other, we had a very good line to most of the horses' form, and one of those horses, Hoo La Baloo, finished much closer than his solid and very easily rateable handicap form suggested he should.

Either Hoo La Baloo has improved considerably or the form of this year's Tingle Creek Chase is not so strong as usual.

The time of the race can sometimes help to identify whether a performance is as good as it appears, but in this instance Twist Magic's time was only about 2.7 seconds faster than the novice Marodima's over the same course and distance half an hour earlier. That is less than 11 lengths and does not reflect especially well on Twist Magic.

Regular readers may recall that I put up Twist Magic at 6.6 for the Champion Chase in October. So far, so good, but the horse's current Betfair ante-post odds of [3.3] would only be justified if the form of the Tingle Creek was rock-solid, and it might not have been.

If you are not on Twist Magic don't get on him now. And if you are already on him then I suggest you consider laying a bit off.

Another intriguing puzzle is in the offing at Cheltenham this coming weekend, when The Boylesports.com International Hurdle is one of the highlights of what should be an excellent card.

A market is already up on Betfair, and it is headed by the Champion Hurdler Sublimity at [3.35]. This year's Champion Hurdle was substandard, but that still won't necessarily stop Sublimity from winning if he is fit.

That "if" is a big "if", however. Sublimity's connections are on record as saying that the horse put on a lot of weight over the summer and originally that he would not be seen until the New Year. Neither of his reappearance wins in the last two seasons has amounted to much of consequence, and his infrequent showings suggest he is not easy to train.

I've laid Sublimity on the win market and may well look to lay him on the place market nearer the time as well. If he is found out for fitness, he could be found out badly.

Our old friends Katchit (5.2) and Osana (21) are possibles to capitalise. The former should be better back at Cheltenham and hopefully with a truer pace, whereas the latter is still on the upgrade.