Champions Day / Graham Cunningham / 14 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Forget the whip furore for a while and feast your eyes on Frankel and co this Saturday. Sir Henry Cecil's unbeaten colt bids to cement his position as one of the all-time greats but Graham Cunningham feels the QEII Stakes might not be the cakewalk some are predicting

Ex for a Celebration if the mighty Frankel falters
What should have been a week spent savouring the prospect of a special Qipco Champions day card at Ascot has turned into another bout of damaging navel gazing for many in the racing world.

I won't bore you with details of the fallout from the new whip rules save to say that I've never been in favour of them and that whichever BHA bozo chose to bring them in just before the day designed to showcase the best of British racing would be looking at his P45 if he did something similar in the real world.

Plenty of media bods are describing Saturday's Ascot bonanza as "the acid test" of whether the new rules restricting Flat jockeys to seven strikes with the whip.

But let's cut to the chase. There is three million quid in prize money on offer and a great deal more in potential stud fees for the winners of the main events.

Logic dictates that some jockeys are going to ignore the rules if it comes down to the nitty gritty on such a huge day.

I don't blame them for one minute, but here are a few predictions both for how the races will pan out and how certain parties might react to the occasion as a whole.

Many in the media will be walking on eggshells, first by getting the calculator out each time a jockey raises his whip and then wondering how many acts of contrition the sport must say to the great British public should one of them dare stray over the limit.

In short, the whole sorry saga makes my heart sink.

Frankel's best form suggests he ought to bolt up in the QEII at 15:35 and if he can saunter clear of Excelebration and Immortal Verse in the way that he demoralised Canford Cliffs in Goodwood's Sussex Stakes then Timeform's handicappers might well be looking at the sort of figure that only the great Sea Bird, Brigadier Gerard and Tudor Minstrel have ever achieved.

But even the greats can be beaten. I don't particularly want to see Frankel beaten, but no horse can be considered a certainty at this level and from a hard headed value perspective Excelebration looks tempting at [9.0] or bigger.

Granted, Marco Botti's colt finished four lengths behind Frankel in Newbury's Greenham back in the spring and still finished just over two lengths adrift in the St James's Palace here in June even though the winner was sent for home way too early.

It's asking plenty for Excelebration to make it third time lucky against the best horse on the planet, but this colt's runaway Newbury success and an emphatic G1 win at Longchamp show that he has improved considerably since the first half of the season.

We need the wonder horse to falter to collect. But maybe he will. And if Frankel does show frailty through pulling hard or for any other reason then we are in for a bold run at a big price.

* * *

Vita Nova to shine in Fillies' And Mares' race
If the QEII is the best mile race run in the world this year then the same claim can also be made for the Champion Stakes at 16:10.

And it's also a very tough one to solve. I can't buy into the fact that So You Think should be as short as [3.3] given that Timeform have five horses separated by just 4lb here, but selecting the right alternative from a dangerous posse including Twice Over, Midday, Snow Fairy and Cirrus des Aigles is hard.

I suspect Cirrus des Aigles and Twice Over could be the pair who go off at too big a price, but my main bets on Champions Day will centre around three horses with clear form chances in races that look slightly less complex than the Champion Stakes.

First up is Times Up in the Long Distance Cup at 13:50. John Dunlop's gelding may be approaching the end of his five-year-old season but he's clearly still on the upgrade after dismissing Chiberta King and Nehaam with bundles in hand at Newmarket on his latest start.

Fame And Glory and Opinion Poll clearly pose major threats at their very best, but Times Up has been the subject of relentless support for this in the last two weeks and this is one sustained gamble with bright prospects of coming off in style.

Second up is Deacon Blues in the Sprint at 14:25. There is no flash story here save that James Fanshawe's gelding is a Group 1 standard performer in a Group 2 race with no penalty.

Moonlight Cloud is the major stumbling block, but Deacon Blues offers that seductive blend of high cruising speed and potent acceleration which separates the good sprinters from the very best. He'll surely be hard to beat here.

Last but not least on Champions day, a few words on the Fillies' And Mares' Stakes at 15:00.

And those words centre around Vita Nova and Meeznah.

Vita Nova has thrived on racing this year and is still on the upgrade based on her fine second to Blue Bunting in the Yorkshire Oaks.

Any further progress will give her a great chance, while Meeznah looks well worth a saver for the simple reason that a double figure price looks too big based on her emphatic success over a longer trip in Doncaster's Park Hill Stakes.

Recommended Bets
Back Times Up @ [4.5] in the Long Distance Cup (Ascot, 13:50)
Back Deacon Blues @ [3.7] in the Champions Sprint Stakes (Ascot, 14:25)
Back Vita Nova @ [4.2] and save on Meeeznah @ [11.0] in the Fillies' And Mares' Stakes (Ascot, 15:00)
Back Excelebration @ [9.4] win and place [1.7] in the QEII Stakes

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