2009 Breeders' Cup Betting: The Irish view

Breeders' Cup / Johnny Ward / 05 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

LET IT RIP!
Beyond Aidan O'Brien's yearly hype-speak, and the general emotional indifference Irish people have to the Coolmore/Ballydoyle axis, virtually all of us will be rooting for Rip Van Winkle in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic.

"Rip is a very brilliant horse, probably the most natural athlete we've ever had... This is a very special horse and I have no doubt that we have never before come here with a horse of this calibre."

Very high praise indeed from AP and anyone that has invested antepost in the son of Galileo must be encouraged, if not going overboard. Of more relevance is that Rip Van Winkle seemingly took quite well to the Santa Anita surface. Personally, if he turns up close to his best on the day I consider him an odds-on chance.

His injury scare is probably nothing to worry about and more normal than unusual at this stage. I cannot claim to be an expert on Zenyatta's form, but she faces that big trip imponderable and the record of the three other fillies to run in this race hardly inspires: Azeri (fifth in 2004), Jolypha (third in 1992) and Triptych (sixth in 1986).

Rip Van Winkle's QEII success was astonishing. John Murtagh rode him far too aggressively in my view and he is far better than the bare form. To have had to go so hard in the first half-mile, yet pull away again in the last 100 yards and win as he liked enforced the view that he is a special horse. His form, moreover, behind Sea The Stars is outstanding.

Stall ten is not ideal but Rip is my most confident pick of the meeting and I will wait for the Yanks to over-bet their East Coast Queen on the day before placing my wager.
In the Dirt Mile, Mastercraftsman is a fascinating favourite. The race will be contested over Santa Anita's synthetic Pro-Ride surface and the Danehill Dancer horse seemed not averse to the underfoot demands when hacking up against inferior foes at Dundalk.

He is a very tough colt and his run at Leopardstown in the Champion Stakes - when ridden too close to a ferocious gallop - can be probably ignored. However, I suspect that 'Master' is probably a little vulnerable speedwise against the American horses here and am therefore prepared to let him go at around [3.3].

Neither of the Ballydoyle horses interests me much in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Beethoven's win in the Dewhurst was one of the most illogical Group One results I can recall in my lifetime, whatever about the application of a visor. Both of Alfred Nobel's best Racing Post ratings were achieved on testing ground, while between them they have had 17 juvenile races between them. Expect excuses relating to how tough a season both have had when they fail to win. Neither is close to the best Ballydoyle juveniles; hence they are running in this.

Viscount Nelson is [5.7] for the Juvenile Turf. A hard horse to weigh up as he seems not to win by much, he does not seem blessed with loads of pace but stepping back up to this distance will be to his benefit. I doubt he is very close to the yard's best two-year-olds and have no strong view on his rivals.

Another son of Giant's Causeway, Man Of Iron is improving but there are obvious doubts on pedigree and his racing that he will get the Marathon trip and he is an unlikely winner. If Lillie Langtry wins the Juvenile Fillies, it must go down as a weak renewal. She only achieved a Racing Post rating of 99 when winning the sales race at Newmarket and in my view is over-rated.

In summary, it is a pity that only Aidan O'Brien has runners at Santa Anita, but I thoroughly accept why Sea The Stars is not there and it is odds-on that the Irish have one winner, at least.