Events / Timeform / 03 November 2011 /

Matt Carothers casts his eye over Breeders' Cup Friday and provides readers with expert insight and analysis for each and every race...

Friday's Breeders' Cup festivities kick off at 4:10 Eastern Time with the inaugural running of the BC Juvenile Sprint. There are six total BC races to be run on Friday and nine to be held the following day. On top of the hours that I am sure that you will spend handicapping, definitely take a few minutes to take a peek at the weather forecast as there is at this point in time a 30-40% chance of rain for both Friday and Saturday.

From a gambling standpoint the Juvenile Sprint could be the key to whether you have a successful betting day or not on Friday, as it is a race that is part of many popular wagers. It will be the last leg of the newly implemented 50 cent pick 5, which will include races 1-5 on both Friday and Saturday. It will also be the third leg of the early pick 4, and the first leg of a guaranteed $750,000 all-Cup pick 6 on races 5 through 10. In all three of these wages many will be singling Secret Circle, whom in my opinion will be the heaviest favorite on either day. He is trained by Bob Baffert and has demolishedhis competition in his only 2 starts, while stopping the clock in 1:08:1 in his most recentwin. He is probably a pick 6 single, especially on small to mid-type tickets. In the pick 4 and pick 5 however, I will use Blacky the Bull as well. He closed nicely to break his maiden in his most recent start in a quick final time of 1:16 for the 6 1/2 furlongs.

The best thing for the "player" during the BC is that you can have 20-1 or even 30-1 shots that make total sense. In the Juvenile Turf I am not sure if the price will be this high on Pure Gossip, but it should be high enough. She is coming into the race off of a dominant win at 23-1 in the Grade 3 Ms Grillo. She displayed some tremendous acceleration to win by more than 6 lengths in her turf debut. Connections are probably rooting for rain as the Ms Grillo was contested over a soft turf course at Belmont. With plenty of pace on paper the undefeated Somali Lemonade could be tough, but Pure Gossip will offer much better value.

Since I don't have much to offer in the Filly And Mare Sprint, except that Turbulent Descent will justifiably be a short priced favorite, I will jump a head to a race where I may have my best bet on the card.

In the Juvenile Fillies you are probably going to have three horses take the bulk of the action. First there is My Miss Aurelia, whom comes into the race off of a resounding win in the Grade 1 Frizette at Belmont. Then you have Weemissfrankie and Candreawhom ran 1-2 respectively in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf at Santa Anita. The former owned in part by legendary skateboarder-MTV star Rob Dyrdek. With these three garnering all the support, I am all in on Miss Neta. After a nice gate to wire win in her debut at Saratoga she also ran in the Frizette, and basically was beaten the instance the gate popped open. Not only did she break poorly, but she was also extremely rank for the entire opening 1/4. I was actually impressed that she was able to finish a distant 3rd considering speed was doing well and because she was 17 lengths back in the middle of the race. Her trainer Kiaran McLaughlinis obviously one of the best trainers around, and I will be gambling that she will bea much more professional race horse in career start #3.

The Filly And Mare Turf is another race where I do not have the strongest of opinions. With Midday and Sarafina both going in the BC Turf, Stacelita definitely becomes the one to beat. She will be coming into the race in terrific form off of back to back Grade 1wins. The question mark for her could be the distance. You could definitely make the case that she is better at 10 furlongs than the 11 furlong distance of this race. If she were to lose I think that the European invader Misty For Me would be the best candidate. She has beaten top Euro runners like Laughing Lashes, Together, and crushed the aforementioned Midday at the Curragh back in June.

With the incredible filly Havre de Grace opting for the BC Classic on Saturday, a race in which she will likely be the post time favorite, the Ladies' Classic is definitely lacking some star power. Three-year-old Fillies Plum Pretty and Royal Delta will probably be 1-2 in the betting with Plum Pretty being the post time chalk. Not only is Plum Pretty coming into this race off of a huge victory in the Cotillian, but in her only start at Churchill she won the Grade 1 Ky. Oaks. The talented and ultra-quick Ask the Moon is potentially someone that could give Plum Pretty fits on the front end. With those two possibly slugging it out in the early to middle stages of the race, Royal Delta could end up getting the perfect stalking trip. At 10 furlongs she was also able to easily defeat "Pretty" in the Grade 1 Alabama over the summer. The 3rd horse to use, and the one that will easily offer the best price is Miss Match. She ran a good 4th versus males at 18-1 in the Goodwood which was her last start, and her first race in 3 months. And over her last five starts she sports a win at 45-1 in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita at 9 furlongs: two defeats versus males, and two losses to the fantastic fillies Havre de Grace and Blind Luck. The loss to the former being a narrow defeat at 20-1. She generally tends to run beyond her odds and at the least is a great underneath horse in your trifecta or superfecta.

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