Events / Graham Cunningham / 07 November 2009 / 1 Comments

Swerve Strictly and cross out the X Factor. If you relish top class Flat racing then the Breeders' Cup is the only show worth watching this Saturday night. Hopes are high that the European raiders can prove more than a match for America's best on a card with $17m in prize money on offer. Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham runs through the strengths and weaknesses of all the main contenders.

"Lookin At Lucky here scores heavily on the hometown angle after his emphatic Norfolk win and the way he idled then suggests there ought to be much more to come. And, for those who like the gossip angle, Baffert could hardly have been more optimistic when chatting with British media members on Thursday evening."

18:45 Juvenile Turf

Donativum and Westphalia dominated for Europe last year and this year's raiding party looks just as strong, with Pounced and Viscount Nelson both having plenty to recommend them.

Pounced is a strong galloper, so Frankie looks bound to send him forward, while Viscount Nelson should relish this step up to a mile.

I'm less keen on Buzzword, who looks exposed now, and I have him marked down as a place lay contender.

Interactif heads the American challenge after coming from well back for an emphatic Keeneland success, but I'm just as keen on Bridgetown based on his impressive Summer Stakes at Woodbine.

Becky's Kitten finished strongly for second in the Woodbine race, but he will be hard pushed to reverse form with Bridgetown.

In summary, I won't be going mad here. Cheer for Pounced and Viscount and place lay Buzzword and Becky's Kitten looks the safe option.


19:23 Turf Sprint

The most chaotic race of the weekend, with a massive field hurtling down a hill before crossing the main track as they approach a tight home turn.

In short, my best angle is to place lay last year's winner Desert Code and English raider Strike The Deal in the belief that both will struggle to land a blow from off the pace.

Desert Code looked flattered in coming from way back last year and hasn't been in the same form recently, while Strike The Deal runs lazily early and has reportedly suffered a setback since arriving in California.

In-play punters will be drawn to local hero California Flag, who looks bound to be bang there for a long way, while Canadian Ballet is very fast, too.

Cannonball's trainer Wes Ward seems hugely confident, while Diamondrella has a fine chance at her best but isn't guaranteed to run to that level given that she has been thriving over seven furlongs and a mile recently.

20:10 Sprint

Time for the horse they call "the Beast" to be let loose. The question is, can the fiery front runner Zensational see off last year's runner up Fatal Bullet then conserve enough energy to hold off fast finishers like Gayego, Capt Candyman Can and possibly Fleeting Spirit?

Without wishing to sit on the fence, I'm not sure. The pace here will clearly be electric, but Zensational is by no means a short runner and I suspect I will be rooting for him without lumping on at [2.8].

In theory, Fatal Bullet is held by Capt Candyman Can on Keeneeland form. In practice he might be better equipped to handle this speed test, while Gayego was impressive in the Ancient Title here and Fleeting Spirit's European turf form gives her a much better chance than her long price suggests.

All in all, this looks a quiet betting race for me, though I might be tempted to place lay Capt Candyman Can in the hope that his tendency to get outpaced proves costly.


20:49 Juvenile

Regular readers will be well aware I am keen on Lookin At Lucky here and I have no plans to backtrack despite his wide draw. Bob Baffert's colt scores heavily on the hometown angle after his emphatic Norfolk win and the way he idled then suggests there ought to be much more to come. And, for those who like the gossip angle, Baffert could hardly have been more optimistic when chatting with British media members on Thursday evening.

D'Funnybone arrives from New York with high-class dirt form, but how will he handle this synthetic surface? It's hard to be dogmatic about his chance, while Alfred Nobel hasn't quite gone on as expected and Radiohead's high level of ability has to be set against the worry that an extended mile might well stretch his stamina.

Beethoven produced a rugged effort in the Dewhurst and could go well if the visor works again, while Noble's Promise travelled like a much better horse than Aikenite at Keeneland and looks highly likely to confirm the form and go close.

In summary, Lookin At Lucky win and place. And a place lay of Aikenite for good measure.


21:28 Mile

Hard to see beyond the Euros here and Goldikova has drifted to a much more backable price on the back of getting a wide draw. Can she defy it? Well Six Perfections won from 12 here in this race six years ago and I certainly wouldn't want to be a layer at [2.5] and bigger.

However, my gut feeling is that this is a stronger race than Goldikova won last year. Gladiatorus has impressed in his work this week and looks sure to set a searching gallop, and that might just suit stablemate Delegator down to the ground.

Granted, the Guineas runner-up faded behind Rip Van Winkle and Zacinto in the QEII at Ascot, but he's much better than that suggests and could be the each way play for those who don't want to take tight odds about the jolly.


22:12 Dirt Mile

One big bookmaking firm has been determined to oppose Mastercraftsman here, quoting him at 5-2 when others are as short as 11-8, but Aiden O'Brien's colt might just make them pay provided he avoids traffic from an inside draw.

The bottom lines is that Mastercraftsman is a multiple Grade 1 winner with a great chance on these terms and a proven ability to handle this surface. Add in the fact that he looks in great nick and seldom shirks when it comes to a scrap and it's easy to see why Johnny Murtagh rates him one of his best rides of the weekend.

Of the rest, Bullsbay has improved on Saratoga's very different dirt surface, while Pyro was only sixth last year and is another with a question to answer on the ProRide surface.

Last year's Juvenile winner Midshipman is effective here but isn't easy to assess accurately having been very lightly raced since, while Chocolate Candy ran well in the Goodwood Handicap here but, like the rest, he plainly needs to up his game if Mastercraftsman is at his best.


22:57 Turf

Yes, I know Conduit won this with real authority last year and returns looking as good as ever based on his King George win and his fine Arc fourth, but to my mind there is no way his stablemate Spanish Moon should be around four times the price.

Spanish Moon is lightly raced with that typically progressive Stoute profile and he looks well worth his place in this field judged on his Group 1 win at Saint-Cloud and his zestful defeat of Vision D'Etat at Longchamp in September.

Dar Re Mi was behind Conduit in the Arc and looks likely to come up a little short again at this level, while leading American hope Presious Passion will doubtless do his usual thing and hare off into a clear lead early.

Kieren Fallon will be well aware that he can't give PP too much rope - but he also knows that Conduit can take time to engage top gear and that Spanish Moon might be able to get first run on him off the home turn.

In summary, I've backed Spanish Moon each way at 10-1 and might well go in again at [5.0] or [5.5]. The place half of that bet is just very solid value. And anyone who wants to lay the win half back at around 2-1 will probably find plenty of takers on the home turn if I have read the in-running tea leaves correctly.


23:45 Classic

The pre-race hoopla has been dominated by Zenyatta and Rip Van Winkle, but I'm not mad about either of the market leaders at skinny prices.

Zenyatta has huge charisma and a massive kick off the home turn, but she's used to sweeping past small fields and there has to be a chance that she will get well back and be forced to come very wide in her first attempt against the boys.

Rip Van Winkle boasts a similar profile to last year's winner Raven's Pass, but that horse was 13-1 and the Ripper is shorter than 2-1 in some places. He's well equipped to go very close - and I hope he does - but from a value viewpoint he seems tight enough to me.

By contrast, both Gio Ponti and Quality Road make some appeal at double figure prices. Gio Ponti is the best turf horse in America and his potent turn of foot will make him a dangerous rival if he can stalk the leaders off the home bend.

The unexposed Quality Road gave Summer Bird a real scare in the slop at Belmont. He's by the same sire as Raven's Pass and appeals as the sort who might really blossom on this much different surface, but grinding is Summer Bird's game and, along with the Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, he looks to offer some place lay potential in a race which looks much more open than some of the Zenyatta and Rip followers might suggest.

Tags: Becky's Kitten, Buzzword, Classic, Conduit, Delegator, Desert Code, Dirt Mile, Gio Ponti, Goldikova, Juvenile, Juvenile Turf, Lookin At Lucky, Mastercraftsman, Mile, Pounced, Presious Passion, Quality Road, Spanish Moon, Sprint, Strike The Deal, Turf Sprint, Viscount Nelson, Zensational