Events / Graham Cunningham / 05 November 2009 / Leave a comment

The splendidly named Santa Anita head honcho Sherwood Chillingworth describes this year's Breeders' Cup as "a wagering paradise." And maybe he's right, but only for those who read the evidence shrewdly and strike a little luck along the way. Racing UK and TVG Betfair correspondent Graham Cunningham has done his homework and goes in search of paradise on day one of BC weekend.

"The Filly & Mare Sprint has the makings of a classic BC duel between two old rivals who thrive on this surface and come into the race on top of their games. Informed Decision and Ventura are the pair in question and I stand squarely in the Ventura camp."

20:35 BC Marathon

Much of the betting value in the BC lies in taking a price well ahead of time.

If you took [6.0] about Mastery or [11.0] about Father Time a couple of weeks ago then you are onto a great bet.

I backed Mastery each way at [5.0] and am still kicking myself for not taking the 10s about Father Time, but the sole question now is whether there is any value about stepping in at [3.0] and [4.5] respectively.

On balance, I suspect both horses deserve to be that short. Very few American horses truly shine over a mile and six and most of this collection will be hard pushed to keep tabs with the European raiders if they reproduce their best.

The ageing Cloudy's Knight looks among the best of them, while Nite Light looks an honest galloper with prospects of staying this trip, but I suspect the visitors might get on the board early here.

Mastery beat Father Time fair and square in the Voltigeur and the St Leger and looks bound to be ridden positively given that his stamina is copper bottomed.

However, I can see just why many people fancy Father Time to make it much closer this time around. Henry Cecil's colt is undoubtedly a tricky customer - and Eddie Ahern will be well aware of his tendency to hang off the bridle - but he does have a turn of foot and that is usually a very valuable asset on the ProRide surface.


21:08 Fillies' Juvenile Turf

It would be wrong to suggest I have gone through all the American fillies with a fine tooth comb here and, for that reason, I won't be going overboard.

Still, there are several good reasons for thinking that Lillie Langtry will have a major say in the outcome.

First, she compared very well physically with some high-class colts when the O'Brien massive emerged from the barn on Wednesday morning.

Second, her trainer Aiden O'Brien nominated her as his best chance of a winner this weekend on the basis that she is much better than Heart Shaped, who came within an ace of landing the corresponding race for him twelve months ago.

And third, Lillie Langtry's best form gives her a very solid chance. Granted, she failed to handle very deep ground in the Moyglare Stakes, but she showed a telling turn of foot to land the Group 2 Debutante Stakes at Leopardstown and shaped as if this step up to a mile will be ideal when powering clear of useful rivals in a valuable Sales race at Newmarket.

La Nez is a proven Santa Anita performer, while the progressive Smart Seattle was pipped on the post by House of Grace in the Jessamine at Keeneland but looks a good bet to reverse the form given that she travelled much better than the winner for a long way there.

Kieren Fallon didn't seem to exude confidence over the German raider Junia Tepzia when I spoke to him on Wednesday, while Tapitsfly is hard to assess given that her smart form has been produced on dirt.

In summary, Lillie looks the safe option. And I might be tempted to lay House of Grace in the place market given that she might well struggle to hold her place when things get tough on the home turn here.


21:45 Juvenile Fillies'

I took a view here several weeks ago and, although this looks a very complex puzzle, I will still be surprised if I don't get something to shout about with Blind Luck and Always A Princess.

The Oak Leaf Stakes tends to be the key trial for this and the way that Blind Luck quickened to assert over Always A Princess suggests she has to be a significant player.

Always A Princess warrants respect because she went into the Oak Leaf as a very inexperienced filly. She travelled strongly until the furlong pole, however, and the Baffert team are expecting further progress under more patient tactics this time.

Any number of others can be given a chance, including Negligee, Beautician, She Be Wild and the completely unexposed Connie And Michael, but the hometown angle tends to play very strongly in this and Blind Luck and Always A Princess score heavily in that department.


22:23 Filly & Mare Turf

What's not to like about Midday? She's tough, reliable and well treated at the ratings and Cecil feels she was just short of peak fitness when beaten at Longchamp. However, my one nagging doubt relates to a possible lack of acceleration close home. I'm sure she will run well, but to me she's a better place bet than a win bet.

Splitting the home team is tough, but Forever Together showed a real turn of foot to land this last year and looks poised for another very bold show.

And Magical Fantasy is another with a potent finishing burst. Pat Gallagher's filly has come a long way since being beaten at Wolverhampton during her days with James Nicol.

She holds last year's fourth Visit on several pieces of Californian form this season and will be hard to keep out of the placings if produced at the right moment again.

In short, expect some lively in-play action here as the picture changes dramatically in the home straight. Midday has to draw the sting from the late swoopers in order to triumph, but the locals look to have the right running style for this and Forever Together gets a narrow vote to nail them all close home again.


23:02 Filly & Mare Sprint

This has the makings of a classic BC duel between two old rivals who thrive on this surface and come into the race on top of their games.

Informed Decision and Ventura are the pair in question and I stand squarely in the Ventura camp.

Granted, Informed Decision wore her down late when the pair duelled it out at Keeneland in the spring, but Ventura conceded 2lb there and was forced wide off the final bend.

Bobby Frankel's mare came up the straight like a missile when bolting up in this race last year and looked better than ever when producing her trademark turn of foot to land the Woodbine Mile last time.

Stand by for another late show between the two market leaders again this time, but Ventura looks the smoother traveller to my mind and her explosive finish looks set to settle all the arguments for the second year running.


23:45 Ladies' Classic

Zenyatta's absence leaves this wide open and the fact that Timeform have six fillies rated within 5lb of each other suggests that jockeyship and luck in-running could play a sizeable role in the outcome.

There is little between the Godolphin pair Music Note and Cocoa Beach on the figures - both ran well behind Zenyatta in this last year - but the vibes suggest that Music Note might be the stronger contender this time.

The freewheeling Canadian grey Careless Jewel holds the tactical key and will appeal to plenty as a back-to-lay vehicle, but I'm fairly sweet on Proviso as a win and place option.

Juddmonte fillies who switch from Europe to join Bobby Frankel in SoCal often thrive - witness Ventura - and although Proviso was 0-6 in Group 1 company in Europe she always left the impression there was a big race in her.

She proved as much in the Spinster at Keeneland - where she quickened impressively only to be demoted by the stewards - and with the prospect of further improvement for her new yard I reckon that she represents the best value in a very open finale.

Tags: Always A Princess, Blind Luck, Breeders Cup, Father Time, Fillies' Juvenile Turf, Filly & Mare Sprint, Filly & Mare Turf, Forever Together, Informed Decision, Juvenile Fillies', Ladies' Classic, Lillie Langtry, Magical Fantasy, Marathon, Mastery, Midday, Proviso, Ventura