Boylesports Gold Cup Betting: Short-priced Commander looks set to dominate

Events / Wayne Bailey / 09 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Saturday at Cheltenham sees another high class chase in the UK, and Wayne Bailey likes the look of the favourite.

With a number of notable absentees at the five day stage, Paul Nicholls' Oslot has been left as top-weight for the big race - but his massive price on Betfair ([34.0]) shows that layers don't believe he'll be in the winners' enclosure at around 2:40 this Saturday.

The withdrawal of Exotic Dancer ensures that the provisional weights will have to be raised by 17lbs, with other notable defectors being Noland, Big Buck's and the injured Jack The Giant. Last year, Tamarinbleu was a surprise winner at [30.0] on Betfair, but I believe the 2008 winner will come from the shorter end of the market...

Imperial Commander
A price of [3.0] is pretty low in a big field handicap, but Nigel Twiston-Davies' seven-year-old looks like he could be a serious chaser in the making. After his win in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here last month, jockey Paddy Brennan stated that he's may be one of the best horses he's ever rode. The big question after that race is whether he can handle the hike in the weights. He ran off a mark of 139 that day, and with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that that weight was far too low. "Everything is on course for Cheltenham and he seems in very good form at home" said Davies, and come Saturday evening, that [3.0] may well have seemed like a steal.

Silverburn
Out of the three horses entered by Nicholls, it's fair to say that Silverburn represents the best chance of taking the prize. He was beaten into sixth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, so the stats are not in his favour - as nine of the past 10 winners of this race came first, second, or third last time out. A brother of Denman, the gelding blundered badly in that race and it's hard to know what would have happened had he not made that mistake. He's reported to have got over a breathing operation successfully, but I still find it hard to rate this horse. I'd sooner take a watching brief this Saturday and I won't be taking any of the [6.4] currently available.

Three Mirrors
Of those in double figure prices, Three Mirrors is the most interesting of all. He was fifth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but was running well in the late stages and I'd guess that he'll come on for that run. We must also remember that he's got a couple of decent handicaps at Ayr under the belt and I'd expect to see another win from the eight-year-old in the coming months. I don't think he'll have enough in the tank to take on Imperial Commander, but with four to be placed; I'll definitely have a bet on Ferdy Murphy's gelding in that market.

Finger Onthe Pulse
Tom Taaffe's seven-year-old looks like the strongest of the Irish challengers and he hasn't done much wrong as yet this season. He was a respectable second to Noland in the Killultagh Properties Chase at Down Royal recently, and made a very impressive seasonal debut when beating Holly Tree and Marodima at Limerick back in October. This is a tougher challenge however, and his current price of [11.0] seems about right.

Conclusion
Not very original I'll admit, but it's hard to get away from Imperial Commander. I think he could be the real deal this season and my own tissue prices have him as low as [2.5], so I'm going to take some of that [3.0] while I can. I'm looking forward to watching Three Mirrors again, and I'd be surprised if he can't place at least.