Blue skies ahead for jumps racing

Events / Ian Dean / 23 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ian Dean gives you an early heads-up on the forthcoming National Hunt action...

Only the agoraphobic will need reminding that the weather ruled the roost last weekend, with Ascot's Saturday card the sole National Hunt action to survive in Britain and Ireland.

That the meeting spared jumps fans from IKEA or (not on your Nellie) the all-weather alternatives ensured the featured Victor Chandler Chase a warmer welcome in its inaugural running as a Grade 1 conditions race than may have otherwise been the case.

The BHA's decision to 'elevate' this two-mile staple from Grade 2 limited handicap seems an odd move from most angles.

Primarily, the Victor Chandler was a success as it was judged on all criteria except proximity to my house, regularly throwing up both high-quality winners and memorable sport.

Numerically, it has generally been a good draw, too, with only one of the last 10 renewals as a handicap attracting less than eight runners and an average field during that time of 9.6.

Contrast that with a paltry total of 54 turning out for the last 10 editions of Newbury's Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase, the nearest conditions race equivalent in the calendar. Furthermore, eight of those were sent off at 100/1 or more.

And in terms of betting turnover, the revamp can surely have only a detrimental effect. No favourite since 1992 had started shorter than [2.6] prior to Twist Magic, installed as low as [1.5] before the easing of the ground triggered an easing in his odds, eventually to [1.8].

Little surprise then it wasn't just the English climate that was leaving the race's bookmaking sponsor lukewarm last week. Presumably the BHA will similarly not be taken aback if it needs to find new patronage for the event any time soon.

The paucity of quality two-mile chasers has been a problem since Tingle Creek was a foal. Is it possible that it is fundamentally an issue of stamina? Given that chasing requires less stamina than hurdling at any given distance, the ideal candidate to excel over fences around the minimum trip would be a mile-and-three-quarter hurdler. It goes without saying, there aren't too many of them around!

Champion Chase backers of Twist Magic (myself included) can perhaps find solace in the fact that front-runners have been rather difficult to catch in 17f chases at Ascot since the course re-opened in 2006, with six of the 14 winners making most or all, as did his conqueror Tamarinbleu.

Following on from the lead-poaching wins of Osana and Lough Derg last month, Tamarinbleu's display reiterates that you daren't give the latest Pipe-Scudamore combo an inch, much less several lengths.

Twist Magic (now out to [3.5] on Betfair) remains the slickest jumper of a fence around. On less demanding ground, that should ensure he reaches the second last at Cheltenham on the bridle, as he did when undone by that tricky obstacle in last year's Arkle Chase. However, after Saturday's capitulation, the temptation may then be to hit the lay button.

Prospects are brighter for the coming weekend, when Cheltenham, Doncaster and Leopardstown will become the equine equivalent of the X Factor regional heats.
Some Festival hopefuls will come up embarrassingly short, while others move closer to making the dream a reality. Thankfully, fewer thongs should be in evidence.

The Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle on Day 2 of the Festival is still searching for a star, a wide-open Betfair market headed by Tolworth winner Breedsbreeze available at [12.0]. This Saturday's 'trial' of the same name over a similar distance (1.00) has attracted Nicky Henderson's impressive Lingfield scorer Aigle d'Or and the quirky-but-talented Lodge Lane, who took the scalp of subsequent Warwick winner Carruthers over New Year. It would be no surprise to see either enhance their claims.

Of course, a winner in January rewards in much the same way as a winner in March, and those adopting the Buddhist mantra of staying in the present can find inner happiness with Maljimar in Cheltenham's 2m5f handicap chase (Sat 2.10).

Nick William's gelding looked to have a good prize in him this term but rough luck and an inadequate trip last time have thwarted him thus far. I recommend keeping the faith.

It's an early start over at Doncaster, with the re-routed Grade 2 Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle kicking off at 12.15. Look out for eye-catching Musselburgh winner Kalahari King in this one. The imposing Sprosser is lightly raced and expected to go well in the 2m3f handicap chase (Sat 1.50).