Big Race Ante-Post Preview: The Long Walk Hurdle

Events / Wayne Bailey / 16 December 2008 / 1 Comments

There are more Cheltenham clues on offer this Saturday, as Nicky Henderson's horses go to battle with Blazing Bailey in the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot. And Wayne Bailey likes the look of the [6.0] available on Alan King's horse...

A number of World Hurdle fancies go to post this Saturday at Ascot, and the Long Walk should give us another couple of clues in the overall annual puzzle that is the Cheltenham Festival.

At the time of writing, Kasbah Bliss leads the World Hurdle betting at [3.95], but that's subject to change as Nicky Henderson's Punchestowns and Duc De Regniere take on Blazing Bailey this weekend in what should be a telling race in the run-up to the festival.

Cheltenham aside, the Grade One Long Walk Hurdle is a cracking little race in its own right, and Saturday's renewal looks competitive. Here's a look at those likely to make the frame...

Duc De Regniere
I see that Timeform have put the letter p beside Henderson's six-year-old, suggesting that he's likely to improve. I'm not convinced, however, that he'll improve enough to justify his position as early joint favourite. No-one can quibble with his Long Distance Hurdle win at Newbury, where he beat Mobaasher, Pettifour, and Blazing Bailey - and Inglis Drever pulled up. With the absence of Kasbah Bliss, everything fell into place for the win, but I'd suggest he won't get off as lightly this time. He's definitely one for the notebook and on paper, there's no reason why he can't win - but I just feel that his price is too short against a strong opposition that are likely to have come on for their Newbury outings.

Punchestowns
I'd expect to see this horse go chasing in the future, as he's a tough sort that looks rock solid. He showed both class and spirit when winning a handicap under topweight at Cheltenham, and with the benefit of hindsight, that price of [8.0] was an absolute steal. We won't be seeing such prices on Saturday where he's currently joint-favourite with Duc De Regniere. He's won five races out of 11 to date, looks like an improver, and will definitely present a decent challenge. I'm not so sure he'll have enough in hand for the win, but I'll keep him on my side in the place market.

Blazing Bailey
As usual, Alan King is firing on all cylinders at this time of the year, and has a good record in this race winning it twice having entered just four horses over the years. The stats are not in Blazing Bailey's favour as all 10 previous Long Walk winners came first, second or third last time out. However, I'm willing to forgive his Long Distance run where he made a number of jumping mistakes. I'm not quite sure why they took the blinkers off that day, but he clearly missed them and looked slightly disorientated. He needed the run at Newbury and I'm sure some lessons will have been learned. Despite that loss, my personal ratings have him around five pounds superior and if I were laying, I'd have him up at [3.0] or thereabouts. The word on the street is that his work at home is back to its best, and his current price of around [6.0] is just too good to miss.

Pettifour
Another horse that should come on for his Newbury run, the six-year-old has a fantastic record of four wins form seven races and is a definitely a live outsider. I'm keeping an eye on this horse for Cheltenham, as it's a course that should bring out his best side. Twiston-Davies is not always revealing when it comes to where he's sending his horses, so there's a bit of guessing involved as to which race he'll end up in. I expect him to put in a bold bid on Saturday, but he has a bit to find if he wants to end up in the winners' enclosure.

Advice
Despite a poor run at Newbury, it's worth sticking with Blazing Bailey at a nice value price. He's top class, and I'm willing to forgive that race where he never really settled. Punchestowns is the main danger, and it's worth having a saver on the five-year-old in the place market.

Comments (1)

1. Stu Bailey | 19 December 2008

   I'm rowing in with you, Wayne. It's a Bailey plunge on a Bailey horse. 13/2 is great value for the top-rated beast in the race.