Ascot Preview: If the Duke stays the Duke wins the King George

Events / Graham Cunningham / 25 July 2008 / 2 Comments

It doesn't have a sponsor and it hasn't attracted a single three-year-old. However, the King George remains one of the landmark events of the British racing summer and Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham casts his eye over the whole Ascot card in search of value bets.

2.00
Six winners on show, including several who have gone from the front, and the key lies in finding which one is progressing fastest. Wildcat Wizard showed plenty of spirit to hold on at Doncaster, while Lucky Redback has a quirk or two but plainly has bags of ability. Prime Delivery moves up a furlong having failed to land a blow at Group 2 level, but Doctor Crane could have the right prescription here.

John Gosden's colt isn't flashy, but he maintains a strong gallop over a lengthy period and beat two useful rivals in decisive fashion at Newbury last week. He looks bound to go close, but Talking Hands looks less persuasive. Granted, he quickened up nicely to land a nursery over course and distance, but he was off the bridle early and it's possible he was a shade flattered in a race where the early leaders went off hard.

2.35

A much bigger field than normal and, with so many unknown quantities, this doesn't look the most appealing betting medium. Supporting players from the Albany Stakes are here in force - headed by Danidh Dubai and African Skies - but it might just pay to focus most closely on potential improvers like Kissing The Camera and Pyrrha.

Jeremy Noseda is back with a bang after a quiet spell and knows what is needed to win this, so Kissing The Camera has to be watched closely after beating a subsequent winner in willing fashion on her Newmarket debut. Pyrrha might have been slightly favoured by grabbing the stand rail at Newbury, but she scored with real authority and the runner-up went on to bolt up at Bath.

The well-bred Rose Diamond is another progressive filly with clear potential, but those who have followed Rosabee during her winning spree will be mindful that this is a marked step up in class.

3.05

How on earth are layers meant to price up a horse like Perfect Stride? On bare form his chance at the weights is nothing special, but the fact that Sir Michael Stoute felt he was good enough to line up for the 2000 Guineas provides a clear hint that Britain's best trainer feels he is much better than his current mark of 89.

Paddock regulars will recall Perfect Stride boiled over before the Guineas - so keeping an eye on his demeanour in the preliminaries is essential - but it's plain that he could be one of the real buzz horses of King George day if he stays composed.

Of the rest, Yamal looks worth opposing having shot up the weights, but stablemate Always A Rock should still be competitive from just 3lb higher than when beating a useful field at Newmarket. Yaddree and Navajoe Joe are also in top form, but Lazy Days has also shaped as if his best is yet to come and could be the win and place value for those who feel that Perfect Stride is still more about hype than substance.

3.40

Recent winners have emerged from stalls 4, 12 13, 10, 3, 13, 9 and 2, so it's clear that being drawn low to middle has been no hardship for a long time.

With that in mind trap 22 could pose problems for Lovelace, but Mark Johnston's colt is in prime form and is far from handicapped out of things off a mark of 105.

Musaalem is unbeaten in three and bounded clear of Mastership in rare style at Donny, while fast ground is one of few nagging doubts about Redford after the way he quickened to settle matters at Newcastle.

Hitchens faces a tough task to win such a hot race off 107, and my trio against the field is made up of King's Apostle, Lovelace and Underworld. There is no real story to King's Apostle other than that he is admirably progressive and more than ready for this return to seven after a fine effort in the Wokingham.

He's sure to run another bold race, while Lovelace's stablemate Underworld is one who could go well at very rewarding win and place odds given that he is lightly raced and open to more improvement.

4.20

If he stays, he probably wins. And the odds are Duke Of Marmalade will stay well enough to see off last year's runner-up Youmzain and continue Aidan O'Brien's domination of the Group 1 scene. Granted, the Duke enters unknown territory in the home straight, but his pasting of Phoenix Tower and Pipedreamer in the Prince of Wales's Stakes here was upheld when that pair went very close in the Eclipse and the way he powered home suggests this trip won't trouble him.

Youmzain's consistency at the top level means it would be unwise to lay him, while Lucarno has been backed at long odds but is held by Youmzain on Saint Cloud form and owed his Newmarket defeat of Papal Bull largely to the sort of soft lead which is most unlikely to come his way again this time.

The progressive Macarthur gives O'Brien a strong second string, but Ask appeals as the longshot likely to give Duke Of Marmalade most to do. Granted, he was six lengths behind him here last month, but the step up to a mile and a half is a big plus and Ryan Moore plainly feels he has the edge over stablemate Papal Bull.

4.55

The usual fun and games here, with a massive field and wide divergence in the ability and experience of the lady riders on show. Pick a couple for modest each way stakes and hope for the best is the safest policy, but Bomber Command and Hazzard County look more than capable of having a say in the finish.

Bomber Command finished second twelve months ago and lines up after returning to his very best on the all weather at Great Leighs, while Hazzard County ran equally well to chase home Master Of Arts at the same venue recently and has nothing of his calibre to contend with this time.

5.30

Much depends on how the layers price up Candela Bay here. William Haggas's filly bolted up to land some good bets at Salisbury and is still open to progress from a 9lb higher mark, but the market will almost certainly reflect that and there could be some value to be found with northern raider Rubirosa.

Granted, this gelding is 5lb higher than when winning at Ayr and 2lb higher than when third at Haydock last time. However, the form of both those races looks solid and, with conditions to suit, Rubirosa looks well worth a small win and place interest.

Comments (2)

1. barry.cole | 26 July 2008

   Thankyou for an interesting and useful analysis , however any reference about S.M Stoutes horses ( Perfect stride , and later Ask and Papal bull ) one must immediately look at the stable current poor form. I am tempted to lay the above mentioned, but will probably just look elsewhere.

2. Bernard | 26 July 2008

   You can't even be confident about a 4-5 fav?