Ascot Festival / Geoffrey Riddle / 18 June 2010 / Leave a Comment

Keeping an eye on the paddock, price fluctuations and the odd filly throughout the afternoon, our man Geoffrey Riddle is trackside at Royal Ascot for Coronation Stakes day. If you want to get in touch post a comment below, or email him on: theriddleratbetfair@gmail.com

5.45pm result:
1: Tredwell
2: Himalya
3: Imperial Guest
4: Hajoum
5: Webbow
Ouch. The stand's side was not as inconvenienced as I thought it might be. Champion jockey Ryan Moore rode beautiful race aboard Himalya, grabbing the stands' side rail. He almost pulled it off and was just denied by the late finishing Tredwell.
The layers grabbed a bit of money back, because there was over £23k matched on Moore's mount at the legendary [1.01].

5.20pm
Remember, there is not a single pace horse drawn low in the final race of the day. That eliminates over a third of the field for you. As far as who to back, who knows? I've gone for Dubai Dynamo at [32.0] and laid Himalya for a place at [3.75].

5pm
1: Mikhail Glinka
2: Theology
3: Total Command
The sky begins to bruise as the heavens get ready to chuck it down. Aidan o'Brien admitted that Mikhail Glinka was a St Leger horse, for which the Queen's Vase winner was chalked up at 10-1 by several of the high street representatives.

Winning jockey, Johnny Murtagh, still has his eyes on the jockey's title here. "All my supporters who backed me at 66-1 I'm certainly in the hunt now!", he said, jubilantly.
"I've got some really nice rides tomorrow, and I'm pretty confident!"

4.35pm
There's some very strong statistical evidence that shows Corsica to be a real bet for the Queen Alexandra Stakes, up next.

For starters, the sort of athletic and stamina-laden performer that one needs to win this race is just the sort of horse that trainer Mark Johnson loves to train.

Johnston, who is still sporting a pair of tartan trousers with his morning coat due to being slightly overweight at the moment, has scooped the two mile contest five times in the last decade, with 12 runners. It's an incredible strike-rate, and one which really should make his charge a shorter price.

The Cape Cross colt is rated just 1lb lower than favourite Mikhail Glinka, who has yet to win beyond 1m2f. For the record, eight of the last ten winners had already scored over that distance before winning this race.

4.20pm result:
1: Rainbow Peak
2: King's Gambit
3: Kingdom Of Fife
The favourite backers bring the layers to their knees. Over £1.5m was traded on the jolly old favourite, and he duly obliged to the roar of the crowd. Rainbow Peak was considered most people's banker of the meeting.

4.15pm
Jonny Murtagh is a confident chap. It allows him to win at the highest level on a regular basis. But he just asserted that with nine races to go, and in need of around three more winners to be crowned Royal Ascot top jockey, he would end the meeting at the top of the pile.

It's a bold statement, but if you look at his rides, he's got a few in with great chances.
He's got Mikhail Glinka in the Wolfreton, up next, and the choice of his rides tomorrow are Starspangledbanner in the Golden Jubilee and Laddies Poker Too in the Wokingham.

Okay, so his assertion at York in May that the field would be 'chasing the places' if St Nicholas Abbey lined up at Epsom went awry, but he seemed pretty serious just now.

4pm
Commeth the hour, cometh the man as the saying goes, and this Rainbow Peak, the favourite for the Wolfreton, is dividing punter opinion.

Almost £347k has been traded on the market leader, who trades now at [2.85].
But as discussed first thing this morning, there are a lot of front runners in this and Kingdom of Fife could do an Arctic Cosmos and come late for at least a place.

3.50pm result - Coronation Stakes
1: Lille Langtry
2: Gile Na Greine
3: Jacqueline Quest
Well, well, well, that 1,000 Guineas form at Newmarket doesn't look so bad now, does it? Jacquelin Quest and Gile Na Greine split Special Duty in the English Guineas last month, and the two filled the placings here in the Coronation Stakes, one and quarter and two and a quarter lengths behind Lillie Langtry.

Imagine if Special Duty had turned up?

3.25pm
Bruce Raymond is probably the best person to speak to at Royal Ascot right now ahead of the Coronation Stakes.

The former jockey is racing manager for Rabbah Bloodstock, who count among its owners, Jaber Abdullah, who is responsible for Music Show and Lady Of The Desert for today's Group 1.

And Raymond was not convinced that Lady Of the Desert will get the mile here. "I'm just not convinced she stays," said Raymond on the way to the pre-parade ring. "She's got this electric acceleration, and it only lasts for a few furlongs at best. She's got to travel, and deliver her challenge late."

In-running punters therefore should leave her pre-race and consider siding with her at the appropriate moment in the last quarter of a mile. Given Raymond's thoughts, however, she might actually be a lay at the death.

Raymond seems a lot more confident in Music Show's chances. "She's a talented filly, and different in that she's got more sustained speed. Mick [Channon] is confident and he'll have her ridden for pace."

Raymond has scoured the race, but can only rule out three horses. "I've struck out Electric Feel, Famous and the Bolger thing [Gile Na Greine]. It's very competitive."

3.10pm result:
1: Monterosso
2: Arctic Cosmos
3: Buzzword
As predicted the two at the head of the betting cut each others throats, while Frankie Dettori bounding clear aboard Monterosso as the field entered the straight.

David, who wrote in earlier, got a fair run out of Arctic Cosmos, who indeed appreciated the fast pace and came through with a late run to stay on for second.

In-running layers of the market leaders copped big time, with both finishing out of the places. Green Moon traded at as low as [1.18] for a place, while At First Sight hit [1.3].

3pm
"If you look at the paced in the 3.05pm, At First Sight is not the only horse that likes to bowl along," wrote David about half an hour ago.

"Green Moon likes to force the pace, as does Bullet Train, when he's not running like an idiot like he did in the Derby.

"I think the way this race will be run suits the Gosden horse, who loves to be held up and looks a big price at [18.0]." That would be Arctic Cosmos then.

Bullet Train has just been awarded the prize for the best turned out. Is he over his Epsom shocker?

2.55pm
Thirteen days ago, At First Sight finished behind Workforce in the Derby. A long way behind. Seven lengths in fact. But Workforce broke the Epsom track record that day, and the list of horses that finished behind At First Sight is impressive.

Before competing at Epsom, At First Sight finished behind Midas Touch in the Derrinstown.Stud Derby trial It just so happened that Midas Touch produced the fastest time in 20 years to beat his stablemate.

It all adds up to At First Sight being extremely fast, and it is no surprise that he has the highest speed figure out of any of his seven rivals. It's no surprise, either, to see that he has usurped Green Moon as favourite, but there are two doubts surrounding his chances.

Firstly 13 days is not a great deal of time to get over a run in the world's most famous flat race, and no horse placed in the Derby has won this race in the last 30 years. on the defeated list include horse of the calibre of Shantou, who went on to win the St Leger in 1996. You pays you money, you takes your chances.

2.30pm result:
1: Memory
2: Margot Did
3: Tiz My Time
4: Radharcnafarraige
Time: 1m.13.70
The stand's side win the Albany Stakes with at least the first four home coming from the low numbers.

I'm glad I didn't relate all of pre-parade ring chit chat to you before the race. I spoke to one member of the Highclere Thoroughbred racing syndicate that owns Memory prior to the horses going into the parade ring. I put to him that the Albany was stuffed full of front-runners, and that his horse would have a great chance in a race of this kind.

"He's only one a maiden," he said. "I'd be amazed if he won this. I haven't backed it."
I sincerely hope you didn't Mr Highclere.

American raider Tiz My Time held on for third and was matched for a place at as big as [14.0] in-running.

2.20pm
American trainer Kenny McPeek is enjoying his time in England. In a rented morning suit the huge 47-year-old was standing in the pre-parade ring admiring the horse flesh.

McPeek, who wandered around the Natural history museum with his daughter yesterday, runs Tiz My Time in the opener. The man who trained Hard Buck to finish second to Doyen in the King George here in 2004 was pretty confident.

"My girl's got a real chance here," he said as the giant frame of his filly walked past. "Hopefully she'll blast out out of the gate and won't look back."

McPeek wasn't overly keen on the ride that jockey Kieren Fallon had given his other challenger at the royal meeting, Noble's Promise, who finished fifth in Tuesday's St James's Palace Stakes behind Canford Cliffs.

"He got into a bit of trouble and had to challenge wide," he continued. "I hope he gives out girl a better ride today."

Sir Mark Prescott's Hooray has been backed. The son of Invincible Spirit now trades at [7.6], having traded at [10.5] this morning.

2pm
While we are on the subject of pace, the Buckingham Palace Stakes (5.35pm) is one of the most fiendishly difficult handicaps to solve of the whole week.

In this year's contest, Himalya is the only runner in the top five of the betting that is drawn on the near side. Bangalore Gold, Day Of The Eagle, Swift Gift and Tredwell all come out of the higher numbers, although Bangalore Gold looks in a tricky berth in stall 18. There are 27 runners.

If you look at the low numbers, there isn't a single horse housed in stalls 11 or below that has forced the pace recently. Most of them are hold-up horses, which could seriously compromise the chances of Himalya.

12.40pm
The Albany Stakes (2.30pm) is an intriguing betting heat, purely because it is 5-1 the field. Jim Bolger's recently uncatchable and unpronounceable flyer Radharcnafarraige heads the market.

The Irish raider is likely to help force the pace, having race din second and third on her last two starts.

The pace is likely to be furious though, as there are at least three fillies in the field that like to make all the running.

American raider Tiz My Time (drawn 8), Twist Of Silver (20) and Mick Channon's Hortensia (2) have all shown a liking for front-running. There's a whole bunch of pressers, too, most of which are drawn on the far side, in the high numbered stalls.

It sets up the probability of the winner coming from the far side, as yesterday's Britannia Stakes proved pretty conclusively that the Ascot turf currently has no bias at all. It's all to do with pace.

It is interesting, therefore, to see Peter Chapple-Hyam's Crying Lightening so well backed. The mount of Martin Dwyer was held up at the back of the pack last time when she won on Good to Firm at Leicester. She'll emerge out of stall 16, and should benefit from all the pace.

She was matched this morning at [18.0], and over £4k was matched at [9.2], and if you don't fancy having a pre-race trade, she could be worth watching out for in-running.

Timeform rate her an improver, along with Bay Of Fires, Honeymead, Hooray, Idiom, Juliet Capulet, Ladyanne, Margot Did, Queen Of Spain, Tiz My Time, Wave Of Applause and Memory, who is their horse in focus.

Midday:
Carrying on from my previous post, there is a general sluggishness about the place this morning. There are so few people here at the moment, it's a bit creepy. Unlike the last three days, the Grandstand is pretty empty.

Tony Coleman, betting representative for one of the high street firms attributes it to the World Cup , and England's game tonight.

"People, who came yesterday will have gone out last night, and won't be back until tomorrow," said Coleman.

"It's the football tonight as well, so the betting in our offices is very quiet."

One man who is taking advantage of all of this is Bill Esdaile, the betting writer for City Am. He wants to strike while the layers are dozing off.

Esdaile cannot believe the price about the French raider Evading Tempete in the Coronation Stakes at 3.50pm.

"I think she's the best 14-1 shot I've seen in a long time," said Esdaile. "I've been backing her every 20 minutes.

"She finished ahead of Special Duty in April, and then went on to win a Group 3 easy."

My French informants highlighted the Francois Rohaut filly as their country's second best chance of the week behind Goldikova, so confidence is high. She's trading at [15.5] on Betfair.

11.40am
It's a very quiet betting day, with nothing really steaming in, or out. One of the best backed horses of the day, however, is Jacqueline Quest.

The filly finished ahead of Special Duty in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, and has been tipped by the Seagull.

She currently trades at 9.0, but there's been over £8k matched at [8.4], and she was as big as [10.0 this morning.

Are the layers getting a bit tired on day four? Where has all the betting action gone?

11.20am
According to reports emanating out of Australia, Nicconi, the Aussie sprinter who finished fourth in the King's Stand Stakes in Tuesday, is likely to head for the July Cup.

"There is now a chance he could start in the race," his trainer, David Hayes, said. "He didn't take any harm from the King's Stand, and as long as he continues to work well we'll probably give it a go now," he added.

But David Raphael, the Sky Racing Australia presenter, can't have the horse for toffee in the race, next month. "He's always been best fresh, and that run in the King's Stand wasn't the real Nicconi. He just ran flat, and Frankie Dettori reckoned he simply wasn't fast enough.

"If you look at horses who need to be fresh, who travel long distances, they rarely perform. He'll struggle."

11am
Good morning everyone and welcome to day four of Royal Ascot 2010.
The penultimate day of any golf tournament is generally known as moving day. It is the moment when those with a serious shot at glory manoeuvre themselves into a position from which they can strike on the final day.

For Royal Ascot, that day is today. This afternoon we need to engineer a profit from which, regardless of tomorrow's action, we can stand up and say: 'I made a profit from Royal Ascot 2010.'

Now for some of you, that has already happened. Kevin, from Great Yarmouth, backed Rite Of Passage and Dandino in-running yesterday, and considering he got both horses matched at double figures he is clearly ahead.

He wrote in last night: "Can things get any better? I nailed Dandino in the last. I had Rite of Passage as well at [20.0] in play. I've been looking at tomorrow's races and I can't see Kingdom Of Fife getting beaten in the Wolfreton. He looks the perfect in-running bet. Too many front runners. It's set up perfectly."

Great minds, Kevin, great minds. The Seagull has squawked the same horse in his Pricewise column in the Racing Post. The best price you could have got on the high street about Kingdom Of Fife for the 4.20pm was 16-1, and now it is 12-1, but on Betfair you can do marginally better at [13.5].

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