Ascot Betting: Speed figures and ratings for day one

Events / Andrew Hughes / 24 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Andrew Hughes goes through Friday's racing in Berkshire using his own rating system

Speed figures are now an integral part of the punter's armoury and in this preview of Friday's action from Ascot, I've included some of my own speed ratings. The figure quoted after each horse's name is the best rating it has achieved in the last year and, without getting into too much technical detail, the ratings are on the scale of one point being equivalent to a fifth of a second over a mile. For example, a horse rated 70 can be expected to beat a horse rated 65 by around a second over a mile. Whilst speed figures can never be perfect, they do give a picture of the gross ability of a horse and are a useful alternative to traditional handicap ratings.

2:10 - John Guest Maiden Fillies Stakes (Class 3), 6f

A tough opener with a small field of fillies from top stables, with only three having recorded speed figures. Of those, Acquiesced, an expensive yearling purchase is likely to be fancied on the back of her second in a Newbury maiden but Sweet Possession showed plenty of promise on her debut over seven furlongs.

2:45 - John Guest EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 3), 7f

An equally tricky proposition with another bunch of unexposed types and the emphasis more on stamina over this stiff seven furlongs. Derbaas looked very promising on his debut, was not knocked about by Martin Dwyer and is likely to have come on for the experience.

3:20 - EBF Valiant Stakes (Listed), 1 mile

A modest Listed event for fillies and mares on the round course where there is unlikely to be a lot of pace on and getting a good position off the final bend is likely to be crucial. Three year olds have a great record here and Festivale was impressive in winning the Sandringham Stakes at the Royal meeting, though she benefited from the strong pace that day. Barshiba looks the pick of the older horses, though is inconsistent and tends to pull hard early on. Kasumi was outclassed in the Falmouth last time but had looked an improving sort in winning the Pipalong Stakes prior to that.

3:55 - John Guest Brown Jack Stakes (Handicap), 2m

Two miles around Ascot is a real stamina test, despite the small number likely to go to post. Sir Mark Prescott's Wicked Daze (82) is still improving and is likely to be all the rage. Opposing him are a selection of exposed veterans, including standing dishes Carraciola and Greenwich Meantime as well as Colloquial whose close second at Haydock last time was a solid effort.

4:30 - October Club and Brainwave Charity Handicap, 1m2f

Another small field to track around the round course, although with a couple of front-runners here, the pace should be reasonable. Sahrati put up a lifetime's best performance last week in first time blinkers and will certainly stay this far. Sir Michael Stoute's Kings Event is the pick of the rest given that he is likely to have improved over the winter, but it is possible he will need this race. Press The Button and William Butler are likely to cut out the pace.

5:05 - Exclusive Hotels Handicap, 1m

A modest handicap to finish, with most of these very closely matched on speed figures and on long losing streaks. Consequently, of most interest is Mark Johnston's Nightjar the only three year old in the race but with scope to improve, having won his maiden at Warwick by a commanding five lengths.