Betfair Official Blog

Ante-Post Betting: Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

Click here to view market

Wayne Bailey rates the main contenders, as the Longchamp classic approaches...

Women eh?

You just can't please them. Recently I surprised my wife with a weekend away in Paris. A lovely gesture you might think. She was over the moon at first, and I was in the good books for a while. I kinda failed to mention that the trip is in early October - which just happens to be Arc weekend. What a coincidence!

She quickly realised what was going on, so I've had to compromise somewhat and promised to go shopping in Paris on the Saturday if we are to spend all day Sunday at Longchamp. Still, it looks like a good weekend ahead of me, and it can be made even better if I can get a few winners to help recoup the plane and hotel costs!

It will be my first time visiting the course, and I was amazed to find it so cheap in a city that's notorious for being expensive. In fact, tickets for two came to only €16, far cheaper that any race meeting I've been to in Ireland or the UK. I'm not normally a big ante-post backer, but it would be nice to get one or two nice prices early on...

Zarkava
Unbeaten in all five starts; it's not a big surprise to see the French-trained filly head the early market at [4.7]. She's pretty versatile and has performed on varied ground, including heavy. Are there any negatives? To be honest, I'm struggling to find some, but she does happen to be unproven at the distance. Her usual distance is 1 mile, but she stepped up to 1m2 last time out when winning the Prix de Diane (pictured above), and ran on well - so 1m4 may well be within her reach.

Duke Of Marmalade
I'm a massive fan of this horse, and being an Irishman, it's very difficult not to let patriotism play a part in my betting. His best performances have been on the firmer side of good, so if the rain comes, I'd be slightly worried. That said, he has one win under the belt on soft ground at this very track, but good to firm would be best. His Juddmonte performance was a joy to watch, and if the Irish are to win again this year, 'The Duke' may be the one to do it. Distance will not be a problem.

Soldier Of Fortune
O'Brien had aimed this horse at the Arc last year, but he came a disappointing fifth, with stablemate Dylan Thomas stealing the show. He's performed well since, winning Epsom's Coronation Cup, and the stable believes there's more to come. However, I think he's out of his depth here, and may have to settle for place money.

New Approach
It would be unfair to say this horse is over-rated (he did win the Derby after all), but I've opposed him a couple of times this year against Henrythenavigator and the aforementioned Duke Of Marmalade, and thankfully I came out on top. He's certainly a fantastic animal, but I don't believe there's any reason he'll reverse the form just yet. Perhaps he'll hit his peak when he's a little older as a four-year-old?

Conclusion
Because I'll be watching the race live, I'd love to cheer an Irish-trained horse home. There's always the danger of letting the heart rule the head in that case, but Duke Of Marmalade is serious business and I believe his best performances are yet to come. However, it's pretty hard to pick holes in Zarkava, and that price could be one of the value bets of the year if she runs as her odds are sure to be short on the day.

Advice: Back Zarkava at [4.7] (6.24 points); Back Duke Of Marmalade at [7.8] (3.76 points).

Total cost of bet: 10 points. Return (inc. stake) if either horse wins: 29.33 points.