Newbury Ante-Post Betting: Hennessey Gold Cup Chase

Events / Wayne Bailey / 25 November 2008 / 3

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When faced with a big field, we all have our ways and means of narrowing it down. For stats fans, the Hennessey Gold Cup has been a gem of a race, and the winners over the year have all shared similar traits, writes Wayne Bailey.

Recent form must be taken into consideration as the past twelve winners winners of the Hennessey Gold Cup all came first or second last time out. Another stand out stat is that eleven of the past twelve winners were in the 6-8 age bracket. It's certainly one of the more important races this side of Christmas, and it's amazing to think we let Denman go off at [6.0] and higher last year!

Of course, records are there to be broken, but they can give us some sort of idea of the type of horse required to win this race. With some of those stats in mind, here's a look at the likely contenders for Saturday's big race...

Big Bucks

He's the early market leader, and worthy of that position. Ruby Walsh gave him a patient ride in the John Smith's Mildmay Novices' Chase at Aintree back in April, and he stood out that day as a horse with buckets of potential. His jumping is a bit of a worry it must be said, and a friend of a friend in darkest Ditcheat has told me that Nicholls is working hard on sorting that out. Sam Thomas takes the reins, and if he stays up, he could be the real deal. The [6.2] on offer right now looks like cracking value.

Air Force One

Timeform have rated this horse within a pound of the above, and have put the letter p beside his name, suggesting he's open to improvement. I saw this horse in the flesh at Punchestown, where he simply destroyed his rivals in the United House Gold Cup Handicap Chase. His jumping was simply superb on that occasion, and he wasn't disgraced when coming second to Roll Along on his seasonal debut at Ascot last month. He'll have come on for that run, and I'll be very surprised if he's not placed at the least. His current price of [7.4] seems about right.

Oedipe

He doesn't match the 'first or second last time out' rule, but there's been a bit of support for Henderson's gelding nonetheless, and he now sits in third place in the early markets. To be honest, it's difficult to know what to make of this horse. I remember watching him at Aintree in April, and getting the feeling that he could be something special. I then backed him next time out at Punchestown but felt short changed afterwards. Fair enough, he made some jumping mistakes and came crashing through one fence, but his heart was not there on that occasion. He looked a very promising sort when racing in France, but I'm not so sure he's made a smooth transition to the UK and Ireland racing scene. Only a fool would discount a Henderson runner, but I don't trust this horse to perform as yet and I prefer to just watch him on this occasion.

Character Building

He's won or placed on eleven of his fourteen starts and demands respect for that. He took a break due to injury and connections took full advantage of his lower hurdle mark when he returned to racing earlier this month and won the Burdens Handicap Hurdle at Towcester. He tends to get lazy in-running, so you may get a better price mid-race, but he usually comes up with the goods when asked. With four places up for grabs, a bet at [2.6] in that market is good value.

Island Flyer

Another horse open for improvement, Island Flyer hasn't done much wrong in recent times and sits fifth in the market at [9.6]. He's in with a chance, but it's fair to say that he's a few pounds below his main rivals on Saturday.

Conclusion

A case could be made for a number of these horses and it's a difficult market for punting purposes. However, the [6.2] and [7.4] for Big Bucks and Air Force One seem too big to ignore, and I'll dutch both horses which offers an overall price of [3.37].

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Stu | 27 November 2008

Hi Wayne,

Good write up, chief. The more I look at the race the more I think Alberta's Run is over-priced at 12/1. I think he was over-the-top at Aintree. Before that he won the RSA and the Reynoldstown - giving weight and a beating to AFO on both occasions. The ground is my only possible concern. He's my EW bet of the weekend.

Cheers,

Stu
Wayne Bailey | 27 November 2008

Yeah, Alberta's Run probably deserves a mention and I don't think the ground should be a problem. However, his last place last time out still concerns me, although I'll admit that conditions were not in his favour and he probably needed the run.
Tristan | 28 November 2008

Its not often that I back an AP horse, because most are usually over-bet. I also think Albertas Run is a decent each way bet, unfortunately you can only get 9/1 now. Should come on for his Carlisle run where he wasn't ridden out when beaten.