Ante-Post Betting: The William Hill Ayr Gold Cup

Events / Paul Jacobs / 14 September 2009 / 2 Comments

"A horse that doesn’t need the ground like a road, but wouldn’t want it too soft is Advanced, winner of this race off a mark of 109 in 2007. He has run very well in much higher grade since that success and finds himself off a mark of 99 here."

Our man Brondesbury has three ante-post selection for Saturday's big handicap

It is traditionally the annual sprint cavalry charge in the mud, but this year's William Hill Ayr Gold Cup could buck the trend with the weather set fair throughout the week.

At the time of writing, at the start of the week, the going is described as 'Soft, Good to Soft' in places and although the ground takes longer to dry out at this time of the year it could be that we get the perfect racing surface come Saturday afternoon.

That would certainly play against the well fancied Redford. Michael Bell's charge has looked as good as ever this season particularly with his efforts in a series of seven furlong handicaps this year, particularly at Ascot.

His ability to cruise at a high speed and then quicken up off a pace could be a big play in this event, but he would be much better suited to plenty of give in the ground especially dropping down in the distance.

So I decided to concentrate my options on the horses that DON'T need give in the ground and will play with three against the field at this stage.

First up is Hitchens, a horse I always thought would land a big handicap of this nature after his mightily impressive success from Hoh Hoh Hoh and Siren's Gift in a top notch event at Windsor last year.

That was off a mark of 102 and on Saturday he will race from 97. I was slightly disappointed with his run at Ripon in the Great St Wilfrid behind Markab, but a further drop in the weights, by 2lbs, will help and the faster the ground the better for this lightly raced sort currently trading at around the 40 marker.

A horse that doesn't need the ground like a road, but wouldn't want it too soft is Advanced, winner of this race off a mark of 109 in 2007.

He has run very well in much higher grade since that success and finds himself off a mark of 99 here. Beaten less than half a length by Markab in the aforementioned Ripon handicap, he will surely be competitive here over a C&D at which he is tried and trusted. He deserves his current quotes of around [22.0] and granted luck in the draw is a major player.

The third horse I want to speculate with is much more of a stab in the dark in the form of the Jamie Osbourne trained Drawnfromthepast.

A highly rated two-year-old, won the Windsor Castle from Kingsgate Native, his recent form has hardly looked inspirational of late, but he gave slightly more cause for optimism in a big handicap at Goodwood in May when he was within striking distance of High Standing.

That form has obviously been well cemented since by the winner and it is worth noting his previous run was merely a fortnight beforehand when he ran a stinker at Newbury, albeit behind the smart Main Aim.

This event comes at a similar time after a moderate run at Doncaster last week and could have set the son of Tagula up for a much improved run. At odds of [170.0], he hardly needs a king's ransom on the nose to make you a fair profit.

Comments (2)

1. gary | 18 September 2009

   I thought you were supposed to hang up your tipping boots after having dismissed Edredon Bleu in the King George a few years back?!

2. Michael M | 28 September 2009

   Leave the guy alone...............we know what horses to LAY !!!