Ante-Post Betting: The Ladbrokes St Leger

Events / Paul Jacobs / 08 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

Kite Wood has driftet out to [4.5] and that price interests Paul Jacobs

"Despite Godolphin spokesman Simon Crisford suggesting Kite Wood is a 5lbs - 10lbs better horse with give there is little doubt that the son of Galileo is far from being ground dependant."

Timeform Radio's Paul Jacobs considers the early prices in the St Leger odds and has found two horses to punt

Now that the false ground scenarios and the running bias tracks of Haydock Park and York are behind us, it's time to focus our attention on Doncaster and the four day St Leger meeting.

And after speaking to the man in charge of the Town Moor turf, David Williams, on Monday night's Racing Forecast programme on Timeform Radio I am far from convinced that we will finally get a decent bit of turf to race on and more importantly for us punter's to bet on.

York's unbelievable bias to front runners/pressers continued on their Sunday card, while the going descriptions given out by Haydock last Saturday inconvenienced the punter rather than aided them in their winner finding pursuit.

Williams told me on Monday night that his aim is to produce safe 'good to firm' ground, and with high pressure likely to dominate this week there is little doubt he will have to put plenty of water onto the track to maintain that status quo.

That could once again lead to a 'York' scenario where horses were unable to get any kind of grip of the ground and found it hard to make up the leeway if they were of the hold up variety.

The main event, the Ladbrokes St Leger, is interesting bearing those remarks in mind as Ballydoyle are sure to employ at least two pacemakers, highly likely to go off much too quickly.

So Kite Wood, a horse markedly better when he can dominate, could for all intents and purposes be the real hare to catch when the lights go out on the Irish raiders early on down the home stretch.

And despite Godolphin spokesman Simon Crisford suggesting he is a 5lbs - 10lbs better horse with give there is little doubt that the son of Galileo is far from being ground dependant. For his Geoffrey Freer win against some good older and reliable yardsticks suggest he is perfectly at home on a fast surface.

The fact that this final Classic of the season will be an out and out test of stamina is another factor very much in his favour as all he does is lengthen and lengthen rather than show a tidy turn of foot.

Kite Wood has now drifted to an interesting price of around [4.5] and being 3lbs clear of his closest rivals on my private ratings has to be a major part of my staking plan.

Changingoftheguard is progressive and should have won the Ebor, but if there is persistent watering of the turf then that will play against this fast ground lover if not as much against his stable mate.

Father Time needs it quick and connections were happy with his run at York suggesting that he probably needed the run slightly and that the false ground was against him. Certainly his time figure from Royal Ascot suggests he will surely be in the mix if we get real natural fast going.

Mourayan fills second spot in my ratings courtesy of his run behind Melbourne Cup bound Profound Beauty at Leopardstown last time out and this distance look well within his compass.

I am quite happy to have a win bet on Kite Wood and save that stake on a place wager ([1.67]) and back up that wager with a bet on Mourayan win only at around the [12.0] mark.

However, it must be strongly noted that the persistent watering of all these major tracks is making ante-post even more difficult than it should be and as such I have downgraded my stakes on both horses.