Events / Paul Jacobs / 27 October 2009 / 1 Comments

Fame and Glory's place at the head of BC Classic odds shows it's Euro-centric punters who are shaping this market. Brondesbury tells us why Zenyatta is the horse to have on your side when they get down to business at Santa Anita

"Fame and Glory is without doubt way too short in the betting, it’s that typically blinkered betting attitude we Europeans have when it comes to pricing up a world market race."

It really is a shame that Sea The Stars will not take up his appointment at Santa Anita on Saturday night, not because I want to see him win the Classic, but because he would have made the book for my selection? In betting sentimentality just doesn't come into the equation.

Instead, another Irish ace, and arguably the closest horse in terms of form to John Oxx's superstar this season, Rip Van Winkle is likely to go off favourite.

A lovely moving individual, he has every right to be at the top of the market, [3.0], and ahead of any of the other Euro raiders, but the price is unbelievably restrictive when you consider two things.

Firstly, he has been on the go an awful long time, remember his run in the Guineas? And secondly he has had to endure some pretty hard races most notably the Eclipse and most recently the QEII.

For those of you still in his corner for the Californian contest I have to admit he does have the perfect profile for the event in terms of race distance and ability to handle the terrain.

I always fancy that a horse that can stay a wee bit further than the fast run 10 furlongs in this event, where they ALWAYS go a gallop has to be respected and both his form and time figures offer hope to his supporters.

However, I go back to the fact that he is without doubt way too short in the betting, it's that typically blinkered betting attitude we Europeans have when it comes to pricing up a world market race.

So what are the 'value' alternatives? Well, in my book there are three contenders to consider at the respective prices.

Top of the shop has to be last year's Ladies Classic winner Zenyatta and all her home work suggests that connections are aiming her at the feature race rather than taking on her own sex again.

She recently did some outstanding work at Hollywood Park and looks primed for the race. Over this side of the pond we have been transfixed by Sea The Stars, but this is a mare who has achieved amazing form and time figures in her own right.

The Classic is made for her as it is run at her home track where her hold up tactics work to a tee. That should be magnified even more in the classic where they always go very quick from pillar to post and with at least two confirmed front runners in the field her win odds of [7.0] look decidedly big let alone her place offers of [2.5] which is quite amazing.

The other two to bring into the mix which us Euros don't know too much about are Tiago and Summer Bird.

The former came from way off the pace last year to finish third behind Raven's Pass and has been given a light campaign this year. Sure his run behind Gitano Fernando in the Goodwood was disappointing, but he may have needed that outing more than connections thought and the race was hardly run to suit his style. He is currently [54.0] to win the event and should trade at around the [15.0] marker for a place later in the week.

Summer Bird ([9.2]) seems to be the forgotten horse here. The Belmont Stakes and Jockey Club winner was given a nice introduction to the track earlier this week and one professional punter commented: "He covered the ground brilliantly and looks to have made up into a more imposing individual as the year has gone on."

Remember this will be only the ninth start of his career and he has always performed best off a quick pace.

What is also interesting is that he is likely to be a bigger price than he deserves purely because his trainer does not handle his horses the Californian way and make them do 'times' on the track.

Californian trainers and pundits alike are clock watchers and as such punters at the track will base their wagers on such figures; Summer Bird will never be asked to record such figures on the clock.

Objectively this C&D maybe too short, but the make-up of the race suggests he is worth backing in-running at huge odds for a win and more pertinently a place.

Tags: 2000 Guineas, Rip Van Winkle, Sea The Stars, Summer Bird, Tiago, Zenyatta