QEII Stakes Betting: Henrythenavigator can return to winning ways

Events / Wayne Bailey / 23 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Freddie Head's Tamayuz is the early favourite, but O'Brien and Gosden have other ideas. Wayne Bailey has more...

The markets are staring to form for this weekend's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot, and Tamayuz has been chalked in as early favourite - currently trading at [2.6]. There's no doubt that Freddie Head's colt is a class act, but is that price too short in a race that includes Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass?

In a word: Yes. If I'm going to suggest a lay, I suppose I should try to pick a few holes in his record. That's pretty hard to do however, as the horse has only lost one race (The Poule d'Essai des Poulains) out of five career starts. Indeed, one could even forgive that loss as he was always going to be up against it from such a wide draw. Every single one of his races was at the mile distance, so no quibbles there either. He's also won on varied ground and if reports from France are to be believed, he's in flying form. In normal circumstances, he'd be a rock solid bet.
So why suggest a lay then?

I'm not for a minute suggesting he hasn't got solid claims ; he clearly has - but as mentioned, there are two other class acts in this race, and on that basis his price is simply too low.
Henrythenavigator disappointed in the Prix du Moulin earlier this month, a race I'd backed him in ante-post. I knew in my heart however, that his number was up when the ground turned to the softer side of good. All credit to the winner Goldikova, but if the weather holds up this weekend, Aidan O'Brien can get sweet revenge on Freddie Head for that day at Longchamp. With the right ground, 'Henry' has been unstoppable this season over the mile; although Raven's Pass has put in some valiant efforts getting closer all the time.

Tactics will no doubt play a big part in this race, and O'Brien has a number of potential pacemakers already entered despite recent controversies regarding such horses. Freddie Head has also included a pacemaker at considerable expense, in the guise of Racinger. Indeed, in a refreshingly honest statement, he seemed blissfully unaware of the current debate surrounding the role of pacemakers in Britain when he stated: "Racinger will try to make the pace (for Tamayuz), and I am looking forward to taking on Henrythenavigator". At least he doesn't mince his words!

The aforementioned Raven's Pass is sure to play a part too, but I don't believe he'll reverse the form with Henrythenavigator in what will now be his fourth attempt. He does look fairly solid for the place market, and I'll take any price above evens on the day. It's difficult to predict right now what that place price is likely to be however, so I'll wait until closer to the day before sticking my order in with the hope it will be higher than [2.0].

This looks like a three horse race, and is bound to be a fascinating and close contest. You can probably tell from the tone of my article that I'm finding it difficult to click that pink button for any horse here, but with all three having very live chances, I've decided to bite the bullet and bet from a purely pricing point of view.

Advice:

• Back Henrythenavigator at no less than [2.8]
• Back Raven's Pass to be placed at [2.0] or higher
• Lay Tamayuz at [2.6] or less