Ante-Post Betting: Hennessy Gold Cup

Events / Paul Jacobs / 24 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Denman in action at Kempton earlier this year

"This flat track will suit Nicky Henderson’s charge and odds of [8.4] are unlikely to last much longer. In fact a place bet at around [2.6] looks just as interesting as granted a clear round I can’t see him being out of the frame getting so much weight from Denman."

Our man Brondesbury looks for the early value ahead of the Newbury showdown. Which horses will be his ante-post selections?

It was just two years ago that Denman did a 'Burrough Hill Lad' and landed the Hennessy Gold Cup with a searing performance under top weight. The world was then his oyster...or so it appeared.

Since that day at Newbury the nine-year-old has won a Cheltenham Gold Cup, had a heart scare and then finished second in Chasing's blue riband despite not looking in prime condition.

His victory in 2007 was achieved from a mark of 161 in the season where he was arguably at the height of his powers.

By popular opinion, one which I share, he is not quite the same horse, yet will once again have to shoulder top weight in Saturday's renewal but his time off a mark of 174!

So the logic is that this grand chaser will have to put up a much better performance this time around and a price of [5.1] looks restrictive especially as there are several unexposed rivals further down the handicap yet to hit their peak.

The obvious choice is Barbers Shop, lightly raced and with his best days ahead of him. The step up to three miles last season yielded further improvement and he was bang in with half a chance at the third last in the Gold Cup until his stamina gave out.

This flatter track will surely suit Nicky Henderson's charge better and odds of [8.4] are unlikely to last much longer. In fact a place bet at around [2.6] looks just as interesting as granted a clear round I can't see him being out of the frame getting so much weight from Denman.

I was bitterly disappointed with Roll Along's seasonal debut at Carlisle, but the ground was very soft that day and it may pay to forgive that run.

The Twiston-Davies charge finished nine lengths in front of Barbers Shop at Cheltenham and I fancy he could run a huge race as long as the ground is not too testing off a perch of 157. He is priced at [130.0] for a win and [11.5] for a place. It may pay to wait until the decs to back him as he is not a certain runner.

What A Friend has been trained for this, and his odds of [9.4] are probably spot on, while last year's fifth My Will could sneak into the frame ([6.6] a place) despite the handicapper having done him no favours.

Of the bigger priced runners, former winner, State Of Play, ([27.0] win, [4.3] place) runs off the same mark (145) as when staying on strongly to win this event three years ago and is reported in rude health by Evan Williams.

But for me it has to be Barbers Shop off a very enticing weight with Roll Along (win and place) and My Will (place only) the back up team.