Grand National Betting / Robin Adams / 31 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Looking for ways to select a National bet? Bob Adams weaves his way through the stats before making four National choices.

There are lies, damn lies and statistics and form students often quote this phrase when offered statistics as a means of finding winners. However, that's a short sighted view as it fails to take into account historical fact as an avenue that's worth exploring.

With 169 years of National history trends often repeat themselves, and by utilising statistics to narrow down your options, you save a lot of time trawling through the formbook. Form can, of course, come into its own once the trends have been established and sometimes results buck trends, but then again the formbook often gets turned upside down, so neither method is fool proof!

I have divided the statistics below into separate headings, but when narrowing down the National field it is imperative that you take all the various factors into account.


Weight
Weight stops horses, it's as simple as that, although their have been some meritorious weight carrying performances in past Nationals. In the last 20 years only Hedgehunter in 2005 has carried more than 10st 12lbs to victory and even then the weights rose at a late stage. The weight factor takes out of the equation many of the fancied horses for this year's renewal including last year's winner Comply or Die along with My Will who is as short as [9.5] with Betfair. It's also best to ignore horses officially out of the handicap as these have little chance.


Age
Nine or ten is definitely the best age for Grand National winners, although occasionally older and younger horses can win.. The principal youngster this year is the well backed 7-y-o Big Fella Thanks, but he has it all to do as the last horse to win at that age was Bogskar in 1940. Older horses should not be entirely discounted as in recent years both Amberleigh House and Red Marauder both scored on an easy surface. With the ground at Aintree likely to be on the fast side you can safely delete one of the more fancied older horses in Rambling Minster.


Days since last run
In the past 20 years all winners have run within the previous 48 days. Many of those actually ran inside the past month, which narrows the field down even more. The Evan Williams trained State of Play ([22.0] on Betfair) for example, last ran back in December. Conversely there are plenty of fancied runners who slip neatly into this stat including Butler's Cabin ([11.0]), Southern Vic ([19.0] and Kilbeggan Blade ([28.0]).


The Irish
It is folly to ignore the Irish challenge as they have supplied six of the past ten winners and the Irish often get into the places as well. Irish riders have a fine record too, with Ruby Walsh the most successful of the current crop of them with two wins. But the noughties have also seen victories for Timmy Murphy, Graham Lee, Niall, Madden, Robbie Power and Barry Geraghty. Incidentally, one Irishman missing from the winner's role of honour after 14 attempts is Tony McCoy.


Other trends
Horses with an official rating below 135 don't win the National and likewise runners who haven't won over at least three miles should be struck off the list. Experience is key though and runners with limited experience over fences should be passed over. Quality is also important, so ignore runners who haven't collected a prize of more than £17,000. Recent placed form is normally good enough although winning form is a bonus.


Conclusions
Taking into account all the statistics above I have narrowed down this year's National field to nine. Using form as a guide from here on I concluded that Hot Weld, Reveillez, Darkness and Golden Flight all have doubts regarding fitness as all have had long layoffs in recent times and Southern Vic seems unlikely to get an easy surface unless there's a last minute downpour. This then leaves me with four against the field. These are:

L'Ami
Form in the National is pretty uninspiring although he did manage to complete two years ago, Formerly with Francois Doumen, L'Ami has perked up since his transfer to Irish maestro Enda Bolger, who has turned this former top class chaser into a useful animal in cross country events. His handicap mark looks interesting and if Bolger has rekindled the fire, L'Ami has a big chance. (Betfair odds [29.0] backed from [300.0]).

Kilbeggan Blade
The 10-y-o may just lack a bit of class but there is no denying that he's clever jumper and is with Tom George's stable who are going well at present. The going will hold no fears and Kilbeggan Blade is certainly the dark horse of the field. He has been shouldering lumpy burdens for most of this season and off a featherweight he looks well in. (Betfair odds [28.0])

Cornish Sett
Paul Nicholls has better fancied runners, however this is the only one that fits the trends. The 10-y-o ran an absolute blinder in the Welsh National and his prep for this was run on unsuitably heavy ground. The one negative is that he'll probably be ridden by teenager Nick Scholfield who will lack the knowledge of his peers around this difficult course. (Betfair odds [65.0])

Mon Mome
Anything Venetia Williams saddles shouldn't be ignored, as the stable is in form. A fine victory at Cheltenham in December with Grand National winner Comply Or Die in arrears, has been the peak this season although subsequent efforts have been less encouraging. A little one-paced maybe but should be staying on when others cry 'enough'.(Betfair odds [200.0])

At the end of the day you pays your money and you take your choice and if my reading of the stats is correct we could be in for a turn up this year.