Betfair Official Blog

Cheltenham memories are to be savoured ... and you can use them at Aintree

Click here to view market

Simon Rowlands is upset that after all the build up to the Cheltenham Festival, and particularly that gargantuan showdown, we've all forgotten about it straight away. He argues that this attitude won't make you any money.

There are a number of virtues that distinguish the habitually successful punter from the mug, among them discipline, hard work, knowledge, judgement and money management. You can add to that list a desire to learn from positive, negative and even neutral punting experiences as well. In other words, good punters don't just move on to the next bet without considering why what happened did happen.

Acres of print and volumes of hot air were devoted before the event to what may or may not take place at the Cheltenham Festival, but the post-race analysis has been skimpy by comparison. With 25 races and hundreds of runners to get through, that is perhaps understandable; though certainly not desirable. So, here's a quick reprise of some of the major points, or at least as I see them.

Several myths were exploded, including the idea that you cannot get soft ground at the Cheltenham Festival, that five-year-olds cannot win the Champion Hurdle or Champion Chase and that nine-year-olds cannot win the World Hurdle.

The race times at Cheltenham show clearly that the ground was soft for at least some (and, in truth, probably most) of the time. Katchit, Master Minded and Inglis Drever each provided pokes in the eyes for those who follow simplistic trends by winning those aforementioned big races "against the stats".

Trends do exist, of that there is no doubt, but there are several problems with them as they are usually presented. They often involve hopelessly small samples and fail to recognise that if a bias exists it will affect not just winners but losers, and how far the winners win and the losers lose as well.

Racing analysis has come on a ton in some areas, but much of what was spoken and written about trends in advance of the Cheltenham Festival was woefully behind the times. It would be a costly mistake to repeat at the Grand National meeting at Aintree, which starts on April 3rd and is the next port of call for many of the horses who ran last week.

Ultimately, it is individual horses, jockeys and trainers who win races and not the trends themselves. Those horses who won at Cheltenham will be encountering a very different track at Aintree and possibly very different ground conditions. They will also be turning out less than a month after putting up what might well have been a lifetime best performance. Be prepared for some of them to flop, but judge each case on its own merits.

In terms of quality, this year's Cheltenham Festival has to have been one of the best ever. I reckon the Champion Hurdle, while not vintage, has been under-assessed in some quarters, partly because the form of Osana and Katchit was under-valued in the first place. That said, Sizing Europe - who travelled strongly until seeming to go wrong late on - still probably deserves to be regarded as the best hurdler around.

The Champion Chase win of Master Minded was one of the best jumping performances I have seen - not the first time I've said that this season! - and the effort was backed up by a seemingly exceptional time. It's difficult to see anything getting near the horse at two miles while he is on song.

And, then, there was the Cheltenham Gold Cup itself, which lived up in large part to its billing, with Denman emerging a brilliant winner. This was a pleasing result personally, but I certainly do not regard the outcome as the final word on the relative merits of Denman and Kauto Star. The latter almost certainly did not run up to his best and could still be better than Denman under different conditions and on a different day. Let's not forget what Kauto Star did in winning the King George at Kempton over Christmas, after all.

Denman's connections talk a good fight, and they even suggested that their star may run in the Grand National in future. If Denman were to be entered in 2009 his presence would probably ensure that nearly everything else was out of the handicap.

This year's Aintree extravaganza - which is due to take place at 4:15pm on Saturday 5th April - looks like being a much more competitive affair than that. There is a lot to like about the claims of Cloudy Lane, but his odds (around [8.0] on Betfair) persuade me to look elsewhere at this stage. Meanwhile, the ungenuine Barrow Point ([26.0]) can be forgotten about after his flop on Monday.

I have to say I really do think that Simon ([16.5] on Betfair) will go well. He jumped well until tipping up six out in the race last year and has had a light preparation while showing he has retained all his ability this time round. I can also see the public sending him off a good deal shorter on the day - Simon was a popular boy's name in the 1960s, I can tell you!