2010 Grand National / Timeform / 16 February 2010 / 1 Comments

Simon Baker gives us the Timeform view of the National field following today's announcement of the weights for the Aintree marathon

"Tricky Trickster ([12.5]), the current favourite for the race, has been allotted 11st 4lb, on the back of his win in the Aon Chase at Newbury. When adjusted for weight, this puts his Timeform rating at 167p which doesn't place him amongst the top-rated contenders."

The announcement this morning of the Grand National weights clears up the picture significantly ahead of the great race and means that we at Timeform can now adjust our ratings accordingly to see which horses now look favourably treated, and conversely those that face a stiff task.

Madison du Berlais ([110.0]) emerges clear top-rated at this stage, but that is mainly down to last season's form, which he has not managed to reproduce so far this term. He will run again before the National and unless he reproduces the level he showed last year, the likelihood is that the handicappers here at Timeform will pull his rating down before he gets to Aintree.

Tricky Trickster ([12.5]), the current favourite for the race, has been allotted 11st 4lb, on the back of his win in the Aon Chase at Newbury. When adjusted for weight, this puts his Timeform rating at 167p which doesn't place him amongst the top-rated contenders. That said, the 'p' attached to his rating indicates that he is likely to find further improvement. Niche Market ([16.5]), a short-head behind Tricky Trickster in the Aon Chase and second favourite for the National, has a similar chance at the weights but perhaps with less scope for progress.

The adjusted ratings for two former winners of the race, Comply Or Die ([27.0]) and Mon Mome ([28.0]), both come out at 173 which places them amongst the top-rated contenders. No horse has repeated as winner of the National since Red Rum, but this pair look reasonably well treated.

Of Paul Nicholls' entries, the market favours Tricky Trickster, but several of his horses come out with higher ratings at the weights, notably Big Fella Thanks ([19.5]) and My Will ([40.0]). The former finished sixth in the National last year as a novice, while the latter was three places ahead of him in third. Neither is out of it this time round.

Five Grand Nationals in the last decade went the way of the Irish and, on ratings, their top horse this year is Conna Castle ([160.0]). However, he barely stays three miles. Both Casey Jones ([44.0]) and Cane Brake ([75.0]) appear to be likelier winners from that quarter, both featuring amongst the leading form contenders. Also worth mentioning is the ex-Irish Kilcrea Castle ([55.0]), now with Emma Lavelle, who made an encouraging debut in this country at Ascot in January.

Top-rated contenders (weight-adjusted)
Madison Du Berlais 181
Conna Castle 175x
Kilcrea Castle 175
Casey Jones 174
Nozic 174
Big Fella Thanks 173
Cloudy Lane 173
Comply Or Die 173
Mon Mome 173
Boychuk 172§
Cane Brake 172
Eric's Charm 172
Joe Lively 172
Le Beau Bai 172+
My Will 172
Royal County Star 172

Tags: Big Fella Thanks, Cane Brake, Casey Jones, Comply Or Die, Conna Castle, Kilcrea Castle, Madison du Berlais, Mon Mome, My Will, Niche Market, Paul Nicholls, Tricky Trickster