
2,000 Guineas Betting: The odds for the season's first Classic summarised by Ian Dean
Betting.betfair's racing expert runs through the likely winners for Saturday's big one at Newmarket
The Dewhurst stands out as the best recent guide to the first colts' classic, the 2-y-o litmus test having provided two winners, three seconds and two fourths in the last six years. Indeed, that record may be even better but for Teofilo and Holy Roman Emperor going AWOL in 2007.
New Approach has led the ante-post market since well before he crowned a blemish-free juvenile campaign with a battling success in the Dewhurst, and with no doubts about trip, ground and ability, it's not hard to figure why he still trades as low as [3.1] on Betfair.
Perhaps the main worry for his backers is that a hard race at the end of a hard first season was not ideal. On the other hand, if a young horse's winter break is anything like the summer holidays of our school days, the chances are the encounter is now a distant memory for him.
Dewhurst runner-up Fast Company may be keeping just that now he has joined Godolphin, but the rumour mill suggests he's had a touch of the slows this spring. Value seekers may still be tempted by current odds of [16.0] about a colt who got to within half a length of New Approach in October, for all there's a suspicion a strong pace set the race up for him.
However, the punting public in general could be forgiven for having a mental block regarding Godolphin and the 2,000, as the operation's policy of wintering in Dubai has resulted in just one runner from 17 making the frame since Island Sands' victory in 1999.
The Group 1 winners Ibn Khaldun ([8.0]) and Rio De La Plata ([38.0]) have achieved more than many of their hopes during that period, though several pounds less than the Dewhurst principals according to Timeform ratings. It would certainly trigger a major shake-up of the market if Frankie were to plump for either of the longer-priced pair over Ibn Khaldun.
For many, the third Raven's Pass was the horse to take out of the Dewhurst following such a bold showing on going considered unsuitably soft. Furthermore, his earlier romp in Sandown's Solario Stakes is not easily shifted from the memory and carries with it the substance of an excellent time.
John Gosden's American-bred confirmed he had wintered well when narrowly outstayed by leading Derby fancy Twice Over in a titanic Craven Stakes a fortnight ago, and while the Craven threw up a red herring 12 months ago in disappointing favourite Adagio, there's little doubting the merit of Raven's Pass.
I seem in a minority of one in believing Raven's Pass acts perfectly well on the soft. He travelled like the best horse on it in the Dewhurst, albeit rather too exuberantly, as a result of which he had nothing left up the hill.
However, there's no arguing such conditions threaten to blunt his speed, and his odds are at the mercy of the weather over the next few days. Significant rain would surely see his current price of [5.5] lengthen, while the absence of such could well have an opposite effect.
Aidan O'Brien is usually to be feared in the 2,000, with four wins in the last decade, but the quartet still involved doesn't appear to represent his strongest hand ever.
The unbeaten Jupiter Pluvius is the likely stable first string, but the fact bookmakers Ladbrokes have been longest about the Ballydoyle charge all spring has to be a red light to would-be backers, reflected in a recent drift to [14.0] on Betfair.
Previous winners Entrepreneur, Golan and King's Best illustrate Sir Michael Stoute can pull a rabbit out of a hat here and this year's bunny, if there is one, is Perfect Stride at [26.0].
However, this Sandown maiden winner had to miss his intended comeback in the Craven due to a swelling, and a current handicap mark of 89 indicates the size of his task on the book.
Fireside ([32.0]) and Moynahan ([95.0]) are others untried in pattern company but thought up to taking their chance, though only those closest to them will know whether that's in hope or expectation.
In an interview in March, Peter Chapple-Hyam stated Fireside was 'pencilled in for a seven-furlong handicap at Newbury's Greenham meeting'. Clearly that plan has changed, presumably not because the trainer didn't like the look of the horse's handicap mark, and any confidence from the camp in the next few days could prove infectious.
Of the rest, only Free Handicap winner Stimulation ([22.0]) figures at shorter than [80.0] on Betfair at the time of writing.
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