Events / Graham Cunningham / 01 May 2009 /

It's worth a lot more than 2000 and they don't pay out in Guineas. Still, the first Saturday in May holds iconic status for Flat followers and Guineas weekend at Newmarket gets off to a flyer this Saturday when Delegator, Rip Van Winkle and company take centre stage on a stellar card. Racing UK and betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham casts his eye over all the main 2000 Guineas contenders.

If you are having a bet on this Saturday's 2000 Guineas then you are guessing. You may think you have an edge - and time may show that you do have an edge - but this is a Classic with so many imponderables that guesswork has to be a factor.

But there is guesswork and then there is educated guesswork. And, for what it's worth, here are my educated guesses on all the main contenders for the first Classic of the season.


Delegator: I wish I had a tenner for every time some media pundit had said "he didn't beat much in the Craven" over the last two weeks. The first point to make is that Delegator beat a field of largely unknown quantities there. And the second is that he treated them like selling platers with a sustained burst of acceleration that suggests he is a different horse than the one who finished fifth in last year's Dewhurst. Other critics have wondered whether Jamie will find trouble on him. Don't hold your breath for that. But do expect him to play a very significant role in the finish.

Rip Van Winkle: The literary Rip fell asleep for 20 years. His equine namesake dozed for only half a second in the Dewhurst, but it left him in a very poor spot and he did extremely well to finish so close considering Johnny Murtagh seemed to accept it wasn't his day a fair way out. Two setbacks in his prep are plainly a concern - and O'Brien has hardly been shooting lights out this spring - but Murtagh has kept faith and I have always felt this colt has the makings of a high-class miler.

Mastercraftsman: Took a big walk in the Betfair market a couple of weeks ago but heads to HQ as a proven Group 1 performer based on his gutsy National Stakes success in the mud. However, I was a shade disappointed with his paddock appearance and his performance at Longchamp on his final start last year. Murtagh has deserted him, which is another negative, and he could be vulnerable to improvers.

Evasive: Some punters can't resist a Stoute-trained improver in the Guineas, but for every King's Best and Golan who delivers the goods there is a Perfect Stride or an Adagio who fails to fire. On the face of it Evasive has plenty to do just to hit the frame given that his official rating is just 108, but there was something about the way he put his Horris Hill rivals to bed that was very seductive. He's another whose preparation hasn't been trouble free, but I certainly won't be laying him win or place.

Sea The Stars: Represents the excellent John Oxx ahead of the exciting Arazan, which warrants respect in itself. But is he really quick enough to win a Guineas on fast ground? If he does he will have departed from his pedigree - as he's related to the mighty Galileo and Black Sam Bellamy - and he looked a galloper rather than a quickener when winning the Beresfor in a bunch finish. Do be surprised if he shows a striking turn of foot to beat this lot. Don't be surprised if his Derby odds come tumbling down if he runs on to claim a share of the minor money.

Cityscape: Probably best to keep this one fairly brief. In short. I suspect he's up against it at this level. Granted, he is progressive and his trainer Roger Charlton is adamant that he will improve for his reappearance when second in the Greenham at Newbury. However, he didn't travel through the race like a Guineas winner to my eye. Put it this way, I'll be poorer if he wins. Come to think of it, I'll probably be poorer if he finishes placed, too.

Lord Shanakill: It's not unusual for certain media people to looks back on a big race result and tell us "that winner was a big price with hindsight." And that is just the sort of thing they will say if this likeable longshot springs a surprise. Karl Burke's colt thrived last autumn, battling on heroically to finish second in the Dewhurst, and although he's by a sprinter he shapes as if he might just stay a mile. If he does then he's liable to run a good bit better than his current Betfair price of 20 plus suggests.

Finjaan: Extend the Lord Shanakill logic and you could argue that Finjaan represents even better value at [30.0] plus. After all he was only a nose behind the Lord in a three -way photo with Intense Focus, but the fact that Marcus Tregoning's colt can be backed at such long odds indicates the layers feel he was flattered last October and I tend to agree with them. To my mind, Finjaan had the run of things in grabbing the stand rail on a pace favouring track in the Dewhurst. We might be saying "that was a big price" after the race. But I don't think he'll stay theis stiff mile well enough to hit the frame.

Gan Amhras: Jovial Jim Bolger has surprised the vast majority of punters again by declaring this colt rather than his Dewhurst hero Intense Focus. And the money has come for Gan Amhras as a result, but this son of Galileo has plenty to find the way I read the form book and a repeat of his battling second in a bunched finish to a big Sales race at the Curragh just won't be good enough. Opposing Bolger can be very risky, but four words come to mind for this colt. Tempting place lay candidate.

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Odd verdicts suggest one law for the rich and another for the poor

Two very questionable pieces of stewarding caught the eye this week.

One of them involved a relatively little known trainer and a journeyman jockey who combined to run a longshot in a northern maiden.

The other involved a leading southern trainer and an upcoming rider who joined forces in a handicap in the south.

The horse in the northern maiden was beaten almost 25 lengths having been chopped for room as the leaders got away from him, while the horse in the southern handicap took a walk in the market and was beaten four and a half lengths having been dropped out in rear then switched inside behind rivals at a crucial point in the home straight.

Lo and behold, the unfashionable connections were jumped on with fines and bans for failing to obtain the best possible placing, while the high profile outfit had no case to answer after the stewards finished their deliberations.

I have no vested interest in either camp, but setting one decision against the other leaves a very nasty taste while doing nothing to allay fears that some BHA officials are happy to pick soft targets while soft pedalling with more established figures.

In short, as Private Eye editor Ian Hislop once said: "If that's justice, I'm a banana."

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