1000 Guineas Betting: A pot of gold at the end of the Rainbow?
Events
/ Graham Cunningham / 02 May 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet
Rainbow View is currently trading at [2.2] on Betfair for Sunday's 1000 Guineas at Newmarket. Her form suggests she fully deserves to be that price. And some respected judges feel she ought to be a fair bit shorter. Racing UK and betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham adds his view to the debate and pinpoints a couple of live classic longshots on day two of a tremendous weekend of racing at Newmarket.
Rainbow the standout form choice if her fiery temperament stands the Classic test
If she keeps her feisty temperament in check she will take a huge amount of beating. That is the general consensus over Rainbow View in the 1000 Guineas and, for all that it's unoriginal, it's a view that I agree with.
The weapons she brings to the Rowley Mile are plain for all to see. Her high cruising speed and striking turn of foot overwhelmed the best juvenile fillies around last year and any ratings service you care to look at will give her plenty in hand of her nearest rivals for the Sunday showpiece.
As ever when fillies move into their second season, Rainbow View now needs to show she has progressed over the winter and that her tendency to get worked up before her races isn't going to become problematic.
But John Gosden doesn't seem too worried on either score and, given that she is a daughter of the strong American stamina influence Dynaformer, it will come as a major surprise if she doesn't hold her own physically from two to three.
In short, anyone planning to pile in feeling that she is just too good for this bunch might just find it worthwhile to see how she conducts herself in the preliminaries. But with her main danger Fantasia rerouted to Longchamp there could well be a pot of gold at the end of this Rainbow provided the favourite behaves herself.
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Sleuth and Shimah appeal for those seeking possible Guineas longshots
The market says Serious Attitude is the main danger to Rainbow View, but anyone tempted to go overboard on Rae Guest's filly would do well to consider what Jimmy Fortune said when asked to compare the two last October.
Fortune, who has never been given to excessively aggressive assessments of his mounts, had just ridden Serious Attitude to maintain her unbeaten record in the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket but had no doubt as to the merits of the pair.
"There is no comparison," he said. "I think Rainbow View is streets ahead of her and I think she would beat her over any distance."
If this Fortune teller is right then the main danger to Rainbow View might just emerge from the bigger priced fillies.
And if I have read the tea leaves correctly then Super Sleuth and Shimah could both offer some each way mileage at their current Betfair prices of [40.0] and [24.0] respectively.
Super Sleuth was worn down late by Lahaleeb in the Fred Darling at Newbury, but she travelled like the best horse in the race for a long way and it wouldn't come as a surprise if that easy cruising speed helps her outrun her odds by a fair margin here.
Irish raider Shimah has crept in under the radar with very little publicity in the build-up, but she's bred to be a Group 1 filly and showed promise to match on her first two starts last season. She signed off with a fine second in the Moyglare Stakes on soft ground at the Curragh and, with this fast surface likely to suit, her chance of giving Rainbow View a race is much stronger than her current long odds would suggest.
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Willie and Ruby the stars of Punchestown, but what did you make of Master Minded?
A few reflections on Punchestown to finish with this week.
The first point concerns Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. It's hard to think a single jockey and trainer have ever dominated a major jumps Festival to such a degree and, with so many stars to look forward to, Ruby will have to show more diplomacy than Henry Kissinger to keep both Mullins and Paul Nicholls happy next winter.
Point two concerns Master Minded. His runaway Champion Chase success in 2008 suggested that he would monopolise the top two mile chases for years to come.
However, he was less impressive at Cheltenham this year and, irrespective of John Francome's bizarre assertion that it made no difference, it's clear to anyone with a functioning pair of eyes that Big Zeb threw away a golden chance of flooring the champ with his last fence blunder in the Kerrygold Champion Chase.
Master Minded's rather laboured win at Punchy brought to mind something Ferdy Murphy said when analysing him recently.
"It was an awesome performance last year, but then you look at the page and he's a five-year-old and five-year-olds really shouldn't be doing that," said Ferdy.
I suspect what he meant was that there can be a price to pay for precocity. Either way, the aura of invincibility surrounding the double M doesn't look quite so strong as it used to be.
Lastly, what did you think of the late starts at Punchestown? Officials seemed well pleased with their decision to delay the first race until mid afternoon and some people suggested that the same plan might work well for British Festivals.
Initially, I was one of them. But can you imagine the scenes at York or Royal Ascot if the major meetings didn't get under way until four o'clock?
The local publicans would be rubbing their hands. But I doubt the local coppers would be so chuffed.
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