Concerto faces biggest test
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Editor /
13 March 2007 /
2m5f Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle, Cheltenham, Wednesday, 14.00
As far as the Irish contingent are concerned, Aran Concerto has long been one of their bankers after hacking up on all four National Hunt starts, one in a bumper, plus three over hurdles. The unbeaten six-year-old has been the subject of rave reviews by his trainer Noel Meade, although Aran Concerto now takes a big hike in class and is no gimme against a crop of battle-hardened opponents.
Layers wishing to take on the short-priced favourite will be buoyed by the fact the likes of Silverburn, Catch Me, My Turn Now, Duc De Regniere and Tidal Bay, to name but a few, all possess rock-solid form credentials.
Silverburn has won his last two starts at Newbury and Sandown (both at 2m 110y) in the manner of a horse with the potential to make more improvement now he's stepped up in trip. Rider Ruby Walsh probably won't go through the gears until getting to the foot of the infamous Prestbury Park Hill. Nevertheless, when Ruby does ask for maximum thrust, the resultant power surge could be electrifying.
Catch Me, a dual 2m Naas winner and very useful 98-rated horse on the Flat, is another individual almost certain to benefit from the increase in distance. He still held every chance against Aran Concerto at Leopardstown (2m2f) until crashing out at the second-last flight, and is just the type to launch a fierce counter-attack should Aran Concerto hit the front too soon.
My Turn Now, who has won five of his last six completed starts, was rallying in third place behind Silverburn at Sandown in January, only to fall at the final flight. Charlie Mann's representative cleared right away from his rivals at Huntingdon (2m4f 110y) recently and given the fact he stays well, may appeal to in-running players waiting to see if jockey, Noel Fehily, boldly kicks on with a half-mile to travel.
Another with proven stamina is Duc De Regniere, who made mincemeat of his rivals when coasting to victory at Kempton (2m5f) in his final prep race. Trainer Nicky Henderson's fantastic Festival record speaks for itself and his French import has ticks in all of the right boxes.
Tidal Bay has previously won and finished second at the course, therefore we know he acts on the track and place players could do worse than side with the Howard Johnson-trained northern raider.
3m Royal & SunAlliance Chase, Cheltenham, Wednesday, 14.35
Deadly Denman holds all the aces.
The prospect of Denman going off at odds-on for the Royal & SunAlliance Chase looms large given the near invincibility of the Paul Nicholls' trained giant-sized gelding.
Denman, who has won eight of his nine career outings, is unbeaten over fences in four starts, including at this course (2m4f 110y) in November 2006 when pulling out all the stops to beat a very good yardstick in Don't Push It. His latest stroll-in-the-park 36l drubbing of Mr Pointment didn't reveal much, other than the seven-year-old full brother to Silverburn (who runs in the previous race) remains in good health in the run up to the race.
Layers looking for chinks in Denman's armour can at least point to the fact his sole defeat came at last year's Festival, although his machine-like jumping and galloping qualities suggest he holds plenty of aces.
Very few fortunes have been made backing extremely skinny-priced favourites, so punters are sure to be shopping around for better value such as the Irish challengers, Cailin Alainn and Snowy Morning. Although the former fell at this course (3m1f 110y) in January, the mare was still in contention three fences from the finish behind eventual winner, Exotic Dancer, when she hit the deck. Seeing as Exotic Dancer is now second-favourite for Friday's Gold Cup, only a buffoon would put a line through Cailin Alainn's prospects at this late stage of proceedings.
Snowy Morning, a son of Moscow Society, jumps for fun and brushed aside Gazza's Girl with a gritty staying display at Naas (3m) last month - a race which demonstrated he has plenty of stomach for a fight.
Originally, Ferdy Murphy didn't plan to run Aces Four on account of the predicted very soft ground, but with conditions underfoot beginning to dry up, this progressive young chaser is arguably worth win and place support, especially as Murphy produced a shock brace of 33-1 winners at the 2006 Festival.
Another northern runner in with a major shout is Ungaro, who slammed Knowhere and According To John with embarrassing ease when the trio clashed at Kempton (3m) in December - an impressive performance by Keith Reveley's gelding, who is no mug by any manner of means.
2m Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase, Cheltenham, Wednesday 15.15
Well Chief set to build on an already outstanding Festival record.
The flood of ante-post cash for the Champion Chase which came for Well Chief after he cleaned out Ashley Brook at Newbury last month was entirely predictable, given the previous first-rate Cheltenham Festival exploits of David Pipe's horse. Prior to a serious injury which kept him sidelined for the best part of two years, Well Chief won the 2004 Arkle Trophy, and then went on to chase home Moscow Flyer in the 2005 Champion Chase. Well Chief's overall career ratings put him in a league of his own and provided he jumps round in one piece, favourite backers stand a decent chance of collecting.
Ashley Brook, a one-length runner-up to Contraband in the 2005 Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy, was according to his trainer, Kevin Bishop, "a stone below form" when thrashed by Well Chief at Newbury. With ground conditions now more in Ashley Brook's favour, he could be the one to take advantage should the market leader slip up.
Voy Por Ustedes, who fell at the fifth in Well Chief's Newbury romp, hit the headlines by landing last year's Arkle when defeating the highly-rated Monet's Garden. Alan King's gelding is normally a very safe jumper and his prospects have been greatly enhanced by the lack of rain during the last few days.
Newmill, who sprang a 16-1 surprise when winning the Champion Chase 12 months ago, limbered up with a sparkling 8l defeat of Macs Joy over hurdles at Gowran Park in February. It's impossible to knock that excellent piece of form and Andrew McNamara's mount is another who will appeal to backers wanting to take Well Chief on.
Nickname, successful in seven of his 11 chases starts, has won his last four starts over fences and he'll still be on many short-lists, even though he's been doing all of his winning on much more testing surfaces.
Trainer Carl Llewellyn, who opted to sidestep last Saturday's Imperial Cup with Dempsey, a race in which the gelding was very well handicapped, will be crossing his fingers that he's made the right decision. Dempsey is an out-and-out 2m specialist who boasts plenty of good ground form, so given he's available at fairly long odds, there'll be numerous backers playing on the win and place markets in the hope some of the principals don't perform.
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