Pattern Race Focus: Get Lively!

/ Rory Delargy / 27 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Newbury's Winter Festival, alongside the Fighting Fifth card at Newcastle, provides the graded action this weekend and the betting highlight is the Hennessy Gold Cup, in which the mighty Denman attempts to repeat his victory of 2007.

The first graded race of the weekend actually fell yesterday and I must put in a word for Michel Le Bon, who put up a very impressive display in winning by a distance in the Worcester Novices' Chase. He's clearly going to be at least as good over fences as hurdles, despite making a number of minor errors. He looks to have a big engine and is a most fluent mover.

On Friday at Newbury, Nicky Henderson unleashes Punchestowns in the Berkshire Novices' Chase and he looks nigh on unbackable at around 2/7. His three opponents are all capable of winning decent races over fences, but those are liable to be handicaps and the favourite looks like a potential top notcher. If his jumping doesn't hold up, then Red Admiral, who was foot perfect last time, can take advantage. The latter appeals as a long term Festival Plate type.

Saturday's highlight at the Berkshire venue is the historic Hennessy Gold Cup at 14:40 and, like half the country, I'll be willing Denman home and into the record books, but he doesn't represent value and I have my eye on one or two at big prices to provide value. Of those shorter than 12/1, only Killyglen appeals to me and I wouldn't put anyone off that one, but I'll take a chance on Joe Lively and Kornati Kid at much bigger odds. The very fact that the former won a Cotswold Chase last season and yet can run here off 10'7 (due to be ridden by excellent conditional Giles Hawkins) is remarkable enough, but a price of 65 is an insult to a horse of such class. Kornati Kid was one of last season's most promising staying novices and although 3lb wrong here, appeals as just the type for a race like this and is also underestimated at a Betfair price of 40.

The romantically titled Long Distance Hurdle at 13:35 will surely go to Big Buck's who is head and shoulders above the opposition. Last year's winner Duc De Regniere is the obvious win and place alternative.

At 15:15, the Gerry Fielden Hurdle is liable to be run on chewed up ground and most of the field seem suited by better going, so a chance is taken on Charlie Longsdon's Trafalgar Road who won on heavy last time and won't mind the forecast storms.

At Newcastle, the Fighting Fifth Hurdle looks an excellent renewal run on ground which will be no worse than good to soft and I'm quite confident that Solwhit can turn over Binocular with the benefit of a recent run. That run came in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown when Charles Byrnes' gelding beat Muirhead and Hurricane Fly which is decent form and the Aintree Hurdle winner seems to be going from strength to strength.

The Rehearsal Chase which closes the card is an altogether trickier affair and, although According To John looks on a very attractive mark, the form of Nicky Richards is a concern. One who is sure to run his race is Toby Jug and Sarah Humphrey's gelding has been a revelation since joining her small yard near Newmarket. He gets the assistance of AP McCoy and will not fail for want of trying.