Cheltenham Value: Four Festival bets from Brondesbury

/ Paul Jacobs / 03 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Brondesbury picks a selection of ante-post plays in the Cheltenham markets on Betfair

With two weeks until the highlight of the National Hunt season and all the trial races now consigned to history it's time to look, in a two part format, at the best and worst value runners set to line up at Prestbury Park.

Next week I shall outline the horses I shall be looking to lay at the Festival given the right conditions and set up of their relevant races.

But this week it's all about value on Betfair and the horses that I feel are overpriced in the market place and are worth backing now, either because they have outstanding claims of winning or merely reaching the frame.

If you are a back-to-lay merchant then that is a further way of making a profit on these horses instead of keeping the whole pit to yourself.

The outstanding piece of value to me exists with Karabak ([4.2]) in the World Hurdle in the betting without Big Buck's market.

Here is a horse that remains massively unexposed, got to within three-and-a-half lengths of Big Buck's at Newbury and comes to the party fit and fresh and reportedly flying at home.

Remember, he has only ever tackled this trip twice in his career, once over fences, and is tried and tested at the track, his second to Mikael D'Haguenet in last year's Ballymore having worked out very well since. In my book he is a [3.0] shot especially as his nearest pursuer in this book, Tidal Bay, is nowhere near certain to reproduce his Cleeve form.

We shall deal with the subject of Dunguib next week, but the Supreme Novices' Hurdle intrigues me and the places are certainly up for grabs whether or not you believe in the odds-on favourite.

Strength in depth wise this looks the weakest of the three novice hurdle events and granted good ground Bellvano ([9.4]) for a place looks cracking value. You can write off his desperate second to Menorah at Kempton as he was a long way short of fitness, but his form since has been solid. Better ground will suit and his major asset of a high cruising speed could even see him improve on a better surface.

Finally, have another look at these two challengers in their respective contests. With Mille Chief out of the way, the Triumph Hurdle is up for grabs and no four-year-old has impressed me more this season than Notus de la Tour.

He is too big at [6.2] a place for this cavalry charge and maybe even worth a small slice of the [25.0] in the win market, but hold you bets until we get confirmation he will run in the race.

Finally in the RSA, ask yourself are Punchestowns and Long Run over-hyped? Probably not long term, but they have yet to run on an undulating track with fences this stiff on ground likely to be quicker than they have encountered. Proven at the course and on quicker ground, Weapons Amnesty is a win and place play at [12.5] and [3.4] respectively.