Triumph Hurdle 2012: The most wide open market of them all

Cheltenham Races / David Cleary / 02 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Urbain de Sivola - a value Triumph Hurdle bet at 18?

"An impressive return to action from Urbain de Sivola could see him shorten significantly in the market from his current price of [18.0]."

David Cleary searches for value in the ante-post betting for the Triumph Hurdle

The Triumph Hurdle at this stage looks as open as any of the championship races at the Cheltenham Festival, only one of the 77 entries currently trading below [11.0] to back on Betfair.

Two major trials, the Adonis at Kempton and the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown, have still to take place, while 16 of the entries have yet to race over hurdles. That isn't necessarily a drawback - last year's Triumph winner Zarkandar made his hurdling debut in the Adonis, while the 2010 Soldatino made his British bow in winning the same race, his only previous experience of hurdling coming at Pau in the south of France.

The head of the market is currently dominated by useful recruits from the Flat. The favourite Sadler's Risk made a winning start over hurdles at Kempton last month, a satisfactory start but showing form in an ordinary race some way behind the best of those seen so far this winter. Sadler's Risk will improve and is set to run again at least once before Cheltenham, most likely in the Adonis.

Pearl Swan and Grumeti weren't quite so good as Sadler's Risk on the Flat but have shown better form over hurdles, fighting out the finish of the Triumph Hurdle Trial at Cheltenham last weekend. Pearl Swan, conceding 3lb, was demoted after passing the post a short head in front of Grumeti, and it's hard to call which of them would come out on top in the Triumph itself - Grumeti made his move earlier than Pearl Swan and was arguably disadvantaged in doing so.

Pearl Swan's trainer Paul Nicholls has a strong hand, Ranjaan, Hinterland, Dildar and Dodging Bullets (likely to make his hurdling debut next week) all among his entries as well. That rather complicates matters, as they are not all likely to run; all bar the last named of those five also have an entry in the Supreme, while Ranjaan and Hinterland may well be entered for the Fred Winter too.

Ranjaan is the one with the best form, an impressive winner in handicap company last time, while Dildar has the biggest reputation. Dildar didn't please everyone with the manner of victory at Taunton on his hurdling debut but he's sure to derive considerable benefit from the experience and shouldn't be written off lightly.

Ranjaan made his hurdling debut at Newbury in November, when he was comprehensively beaten by Urbain de Sivola. The winner hasn't been seen since, missing a couple of likely targets, but he has an entry at Sandown this weekend and in the Spring at Leopardstown, which is encouraging for his supporters. He was untried on the Flat, coming from a French jumping background, and has lots of potential to improve. An impressive return to action could see him shorten significantly in the market.

Irish stables last won the Triumph in 2002 and probably have their work cut out again. Minsk, currently the shortest-priced Irish-trained runner, has yet to appear over hurdles, though he is the best of the whole entry so far as Flat form is concerned. Willie Mullins has a strong hand numerically, though several of his have also yet to be seen over hurdles and the pair with the best form, Ut de Sivola and Darroun, look a bit behind the pick of the British at this stage.

Nicky Henderson has a tremendous record in the Triumph but he's made little impact in juvenile hurdles so far this season. He has entered four in the race this time round, the pick of which may well be Une Artiste, whose route to Henderson's yard is similar to that of 2010 winner Soldatino. Victorious in her last three races in France, two bumpers and a newcomers hurdle, Une Artiste's win over hurdles at Pau was particularly impressive, as she jumped like an old hand and had plenty left at the finish. Look out for her if she turns up in the Adonis.

In a wide-open contest, Urbain de Sivola at [18.0] makes most appeal at the prices of those that have run over hurdles in Britain and Ireland, Une Artiste is much more speculative, but catches the eye among those that have yet to be seen here.

Key Dates
Scottish Triumph Hurdle, Musselburgh, February 5
Chatteris Fen Hurdle. Huntingdon, February 9
Spring Juvenile Hurdle, Leopardstown, February 12
Next declaration stage, February 21
Adonis Juvenile Hurdle, Kempton, February 25
Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle, Fairyhouse, February 25

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