Cheltenham Races / David Cleary / 26 January 2012 /

This is shaping up as one of the finest ante-post betting markets in recent years with a clutch of genuine contenders in the line-up. David Cleary assesses their claims

The Arkle, despite the smallest initial entry in over 20 years, promises to be one of the highlights of the Festival. A strong batch of good hurdlers have switched to fences this season and it's likely the majority of them will turn up here.

Last year's Champion Hurdle runner-up Peddlers Cross, the best hurdler to go chasing this season, won his first two starts impressively before coming unstuck when favourite for the Wayward Lad at Kempton on Boxing day. However, a problem came to light subsequently, so Peddlers Cross is better judged on his earlier form.

The Wayward Lad went to Sprinter Sacre, who was making it two out of two over fences; he was certainly impressive and jumps really well, though, so far as his form goes, he's more style and potential rather than substance at the moment. Sprinter Sacre finished third in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Festival a year ago, having progressed well over hurdles, but, though not fully exposed, his form in that sphere would be behind the others at the head of the Arkle market.

The Supreme was won by Al Ferof, who has already achieved a similarly high level of form over fences in just three starts, winning two graded events for novices and finishing an excellent third in an open Grade 1 at Ascot last weekend. Although, it's in part about opportunity, Al Ferof's effort at Ascot is the best piece of chasing form shown by any likely to line up here.

Neither Peddlers Cross nor Al Ferof seem unlikely to be seen again before Cheltenham, but Sprinter Sacre has a couple of options, including the Lightning Novices' Chase at Doncaster on Saturday and the Betfair Super Saturday Chase, otherwise known as the Game Spirit, at Newbury next month. If he ran in open company in the latter, Sprinter Sacre may well have the chance to show form a bit more solid than he has so far.

The high-class hurdler Menorah, another winner of the Supreme, is also entered at Doncaster and a good performance if he takes his chance could see him shorten in the Arkle market. He would be three from three over fences but for unseating when in control at Exeter but has made a significant mistake in the latter stages of all those races and the communication with his rider Richard Johnson could be better. An error-free round would boost his claims.

Cue Card finished fourth behind Al Ferof in the Supreme last March, having won the Champion Bumper from him in 2010. So far over fences, Cue Card has been pretty convincing over trips at two-and-a-quarter miles or more, indeed is unfortunate not to be three from three on completed starts, winning the race everywhere but the line when beaten by RSA Chase candidate Bobs Worth at Newbury.

That quintet set such a high standard that any of the other potential runners in the Arkle would have to improve significantly to get a look in. For Non Stop makes significantly more appeal for the Jewson. He still makes more appeal as a Cheltenham candidate than Blackstairmountain, who took a long time to get past Notus de La Tour in a Grade 1 novice at Leopardstown at Christmas and whose two previous visits to the Festival haven't suggested he's anywhere near up to the class required. Blackstairmountain is a likely runner in the Irish Arkle on Sunday.

There's a case to be made for any of the front five in the betting for the Arkle, but Sprinter Sacre just looks the wrong price. Menorah's tendency to make a mistake is a worry, though in terms of ability he ought to be a bit shorter in the market. The best option at this stage, though, is Al Ferof. He has had a trouble-free campaign, has jumped really well on all three starts and has the best form in the race. He looks the bet at [7.6].

Key dates
Lightning Novices' Chase, Doncaster, January 28
Arkle Novice Chase, Leopardstown, January 29
Betfair Super Saturday Chase, Newbury, February 11
Betfair Kingmaker Novices' Chase, Warwick, February 11
Opera Hat Novice Chase, Naas, February 11
Flyingbolt Novice Chase, Navan, February 19
Next declaration stage, February 21

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