/ Graham Cunningham / 13 November 2009 /

You know winter is on its way when Betfair quote markets on whether a meeting will take place. Rain and wind are set to lash Cheltenham on Friday night and Saturday morning, but some great sport awaits if the weather relents - Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham has been casting his eye over the best of the action.

If recent history tells us one thing it is that previous Cheltenham experience is very valuable indeed if you want to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

No fewer than nine of the last 10 winners lined up with a Cheltenham chasing success under their belts - and the other one had finished third in an RSA Chase before falling at the last when looking set to win a big handicap.

Trends are meant to be broken, of course, but anyone backing the likes of Tarotino and the gambled-on Tranquil Sea for Saturday's £150,000 showpiece does so in the knowledge that they don't fit the identikit profile of recent winners.

But Chapoturgeon certainly does. Granted, the rest of the trends mob will argue that this is one of precious few big chases that have eluded Paul Nicholls, but Chapoturgeon thrived for the combination of a big field and a strong pace when romping away with the Jewson Final here in March and that performance marks him out as a leading player here.

Tranquil Sea never threatened in the Jewson, but that wasn't surprising given that he made a juddering blunder at halfway and I'm expecting a much better show this time given that he relishes the mud and is fresh from looking better than ever with a Grade 3 success at Naas.

Poquelin's chance has receded with the change in the weather, while Ballyfitz has yet to prove that he's fast enough to win a big race over this trip and According To Pete is another who may need three miles to show to very best advantage this season.

By contrast, Chapoturgeon has bags of pace. Timmy Murphy is likely to have no part of the early gallop, but the smooth-travelling Chapoturgeon looks capable of moving into the race travelling kindly coming down the hill.

I fear Tranquil Sea greatly - and he's probably worth a saver even though the fancy prices are long gone now - but Chapoturgeon looked the right sort for this race from the moment he bounded clear in the Jewson and I rate him the best win and place option in a fiercely competitive race.

Cheltenham has a good record for swerving the worst of the weather when things turn nasty overall, but the rain is settling in as I type this from the Press room at noon on Friday and conditions could be nasty by the time Saturday's card gets under way.

It will probably pay to tread warily if things get really testing, but there is one northern raider whose chance will increase with every drop of rain that falls over the next 24 hours.

The Bill Amos-trained Lie Forrit is the horse in question. Granted, he faces a clutch of stern opponents in the Jardine Lloyd Thompson Handicap Hurdle at 3.10 and Great Endeavour will justifiably corner plenty of support given that he's lightly raced with ample potential for improvement this season.

However, Lie Forrit is equally progressive after thriving on racing to win three of his four races on deep ground last season.

He looked better than ever on his reappearance at Aintree - where he was travelling powerfully only to run out when his saddle appeared to slip at the second last - and it wouldn't surprise me to see him become one of the gambles of the weekend if the ground gets genuinely heavy.

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