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Cheltenham November Meeting: The Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase
/ Wayne Bailey / 03 November 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet
Wayne Bailey takes a look at the early market for the Gold Cup on November 14th where Chapoturgeon heads the betting...
It's always tricky to write about the big handicaps in advance of the final weights being published - and of course, the final line-up is far from decided for the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase at Cheltenham on November 14th. However, the upside is that some pretty big ante-post prices are still available so hopefully we can take advantage of some of the offers the layers have put up on Betfair.
For a handicap, this has been a relatively punter friendly race in recent times and just three winners since the turn of the century were returned in double figures; which isn't too bad at all considering some of the competitive fields during that time.
As I write on Tuesday (November 3), Chapoturgeon sits at the top of the market on Betfair priced around [7.0]. He's another one of those French imports that Nicholls seems to excel with and his best performance to date was winning the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase at the festival in March.
That said, his latest two races have given cause for concern; he fell at Aintree in the John Smith's Manifesto Novices' Chase and wasn't very fluid with his jumping last-time-out in a Novices' Chase at Cheltenham. The five-year-old is still learning all the time and he is capable of putting in a bold display - but I'm just not convinced by his jumping so I'm going to back him with a view to laying when the final line-up is complete. I'm taking a chance of course, but I'd give an educated guess that he'll go off shorter than [7.0] should he line-up on the day and if that happens, I'll lay off for a free bet.
Nicky Henderson's Barbers Shop is trading at [19.0] and that price looks quite generous when you consider that some prominent bookmakers are going as low as 12/1. He jumped very well in the Gold Cup at the festival in March, but he ran out of gas and I don't think he's the strongest stayer in the world. This trip of just over 2m4f will be ideal and five of his six wins to date were on distances of under three miles.
Timeform have the plus symbol next to his name which suggests that he may be better than rated and I'd certainly go along with that assertion. [19.0] is too high and I've already chipped away at some of that price with small change. However, his participation is far from certain and Henderson is waiting until the final weights are published before making a decision - so proceed with some caution if backing the seven-year-old.
Paul Nicholls' Tatenen trades at [16.0] which is fairly reasonable considering his Aintree form when second place in the John Smith's Maghull Novices' Chase. However he's been far from consistent and has now raced four times without a win. I must admit that I lost quite a lot of money on him when having a max bet at [1.68] at Leopardstown back in December and the memory of that loss is probably making me a little wary.
[9.6] or thereabouts is a little short for Alan King's Tarotino but I'd expect him to put in a bold run and a place is not out of the question. He's building a little picket fence beside his name and I stuck him in the notebook some time back as one that's likely to improve this season.
Recommended:
Back Barbers Shop at [19.0].
Back Chapoturgeon at [7.0] with a view to laying off at a shorter price on the day.
Best of luck with your Cheltenham betting!
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