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Cheltenham Head-to-Heads: World Hurdle
/ Graham Cunningham / 11 March 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet
Big Buck's is the talking horse in the World Hurdle betting and while one of our men likes his chatter, another is prepared to take him on
Graham Cunningham: I like Big Buck's and I cannot lie.
But I don't like him enough to take [1.7] about a repeat success in this day three showpiece and Tidal Bay looks a likely candidate to trouble him now that he has found his way back to hurdling again.
The problem with taking tight odds about Big Buck's before any of his races is that you always have a strong suspicion that his tendency to idle for a brief spell as the pace increases will see him lengthen to a certain degree in the in-play market.
Simon Rowlands made this point forcefully on betting.betfair.com last month and punters have various options at their disposal to try and capitalise.
Laying Big Buck's with a view to backing him at odds against in the run is a perfectly viable angle, while backing one of his rivals with a view to laying off at much shorter once the tapes go up is another.
However, with Punchestowns and Diamond Harry now plying their trade over fences finding rivals good enough to stretch BB isn't easy.
Karabak got within three-and-a-half lengths of the champ at Newbury and can be relied on to give his all again, while Sentry Duty beat just two rivals in a tactical race here in January and this stiffer stamina test poses a much different question.
Time For Rupert is an up-and-comer with an encouraging Cheltenham record, but Tidal Bay simply powered away from him close home in the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day in January.
Granted, he has his quirks, but Tidal Bay also has an excellent Festival record and an impressively high cruising speed.
I hope HoJo tells Denis O'Regan to ride him with a view to stalking Big Buck's into the straight rather than acting as his bunny. And if TB has his head on right then BB might be in for a much harder shift than many of his followers are bargaining for.
Will Hayler: I expect plenty of people to fall under the Tidal Bay spell in the next few days and it would not be a surprise for his price to be considerably shorter than the [9.2] available now on the day. Therefore I wouldn't discourage a bet as a trading option, but surely if you wanted one horse on your side in a battle against Big Buck's, it wouldn't be the awkward, head-in-the-air, too-clever-for-his-own-good Tidal Bay. He came up short against the best over hurdles when he was a novice three years ago. Why should it be any different now, after an up-and-down career as a chaser has come to an end?
Tidal Bay may have "simply powered" away from Time For Rupert, but that horse had a rating of just 151 and third-placed Katchit seems a shadow of his old self, having not won a race since the Champion Hurdle two years ago. Okay, let's just say Tidal Bay does put it all in - he probably has the ability to make Big Buck's work, but work is the one thing that the favourite does best. Big Buck's might not be sexy, but he'll keep grinding. Hopefully, if punters look for value in the likes of Karabak and Tidal Bay, we might even get something nearer to [1.8] on the day too.
As for the idea that Big Buck's is an in-running play, I can see the logic, but there can't be a punter alive who doesn't know the score with this horse. I can remember seeing Inglis Drever lose ground four out and briefly come under pressure two years ago when winning this race for the third time. I looked down at the screen expecting to see some [5.0] or [6.0] and they were queueing up to back him at [3.0]. They knew. Normal in-running betting rules don't apply with these tough sloggers. If you're planning a lay-to-back strategy, keep your 'back' price realistic.
