Cheltenham Head-to-Heads: Supreme Novices' Hurdle

/ Graham Cunningham / 08 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

For the biggest races Betting.Betfair rolls out the best as Racing UK analyst Graham Cunningham and Guardian correspondent Will Hayler go head-to-head to discuss the main races at Cheltenham. First up is the Supreme Novices' Hurdle which takes place on Tuesday March 16.

Graham Cunningham: It would be the easiest thing in the world to go for a cheap early score by tipping Dunguib for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle. But I have no intention of taking the easy option for the simple reason that I think Dunguib is the wrong price.

Would I back him at [2.5]? Probably. Would I back him at [2.2]? Probably not. And would I back him at his current price of [1.9]? Like heck I would.

Dunguib was majestic in last year's Festival Bumper and is 4-4 over hurdles, but he jumped clumsily at Leopardstown last time out and I suspect he runs into at least a couple of British rivals here who have much more pace than the stayers he has beaten up on recently.

Step forward Menorah, who established himself firmly as a high-class novice when sinking Bellvano in commanding fashion at Kempton on Boxing Day before being beaten under a bizarre ride just half an hour after his rider Richard Johnson had taken a brutal fall at Ascot last month.

In short, Menorah is a strong traveller and a bold jumper who ought to relish being steadied behind a strong pace on spring ground at Cheltenham and I reckon he represents major value in the win and place markets at and respectively.

What do you say on the Dunguib debate, Mr Hayler?

Will Hayler: It would appear from reading the Betfair forum, that you and I, Graham, are about the only people in the world not to have snaffled some amazing, magical ante-post price about Dunguib. The important thing is not to approach the race feeling that Dunguib, at his current price, has to be a monumentally-large back or lay prospect. Listening to some of the Cheltenham previews, some feel determined to make or break the entire week with a bold play in the first of 26 delicious contests. Patience, my friends.

I wonder whether he might become a backable prospect at an early stage of the race itself if he makes a mistake and the in-running players take a kneejerk view against him. He has shown before that he is the sort of horse who can make a mess of one and then come straight back on the bridle. Furthermore, he seems to jump better at faster speeds. I'd rather back him at [4.0] after a first-flight howler, than I would at [1.9] at this stage.

The good news for those looking to find one to beat the favourite is that there aren't many to worry about and there really doesn't look to be a great deal of strength outside of the first six or seven in the betting. You're right to put a line through Menorah's last run, Graham, but should Bellvano really be three times his price on the strength of that one disappointing run behind him at Kempton? From a back to lay angle at the least, I'd like to get Bellvano onside if he is confirmed a runner.

The other I'd want to keep onside is Get Me Out Of Here at [10.0], who may only have been winning off a mark of 137 in the Tote Gold Trophy, but was still highly impressive against experienced rivals and there was plenty to like about the way he shrugged off a blunder at the final flight. He's still learning, but that sort of experience will count for plenty and there's nothing to suggest he won't handle the track at Cheltenham.