The Cheltenham Festival / The Betfair Contrarian / 01 March 2012 /

Ruby Walsh is the most successful jockey in Cheltenham history and has been the star of the last four Festivals. So why is the Contrarian confidently laying the silver-haired Irishman this time around at [1.77]? Read on to find out...

You don't need to win a lot of races to be top jockey

On four of the six occasions that Walsh has been the festival's top jockey, he has scooped the honour by claiming only three wins, fewer than you might expect given his partnership with two of the most prolific Cheltenham trainers, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls. This enables him to ride plenty of short-priced favourites, and on average he enters around 20 of the 27 races. By contrast, in five of the last seven years when Walsh hasn't prevailed, the leading jockey has secured four victories or more, suggesting that several of his past triumphs have owed more to the lack of a rival really piling on the pressure than to him being particularly dominant.

Three should be fairly easy for Geraghty

Odds of [4.4] indicate that Barry Geraghty is considered a genuine adversary to Walsh and rightly so. The 32-year-old boasts the third most Cheltenham Festival wins ever, racked up the best tally in 2003 and is nowadays the main man for the event's all-time top trainer Nicky Henderson. More importantly though, he has a number of hugely promising rides this year, the pick perhaps being Sprinter Sacre, the clear [2.24] favourite in the Arkle Chase. In addition, he will mount the Jimmy Nesbitt part-owned Riverside Theatre, who charged to the top of the Ryanair Chase market after his majestic return in February's Betfair Ascot Chase. Only Long Run has beaten it in its last four outings. With the likes of Oscar Whisky, Bobs Worth and Finian's Rainbow also set to be saddled by Geraghty, he has the quality at his disposal to deliver at least a hat-trick of wins, which is usually enough to put you in contention for the big prize.

Walsh's top rides aren't unconquerable

Walsh has some frightening frontrunners, most notably odds-on trio Big Buck's (1.63 in the World Hurdle), Quevega (1.65 in the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle) and Hurricane Fly (1.88 in the Champion Hurdle), but question marks can be raised about all three. Big Buck's is facing the formidable Oscar Whisky - winner of its last three races, two of those at Cheltenham - for the first time. Quevega, like Big Buck's, is battling the history book in her fight to become the first four-time victor of any Festival race since Baulking Green in the United Hunts' Chase 45 years ago. Even that great horse needed two tries to achieve the fourth, unseating its jockey on the first attempt in 1966. As for Hurricane Fly, he must see off 2010 Champion Hurdle king Binocular, who didn't get a chance to defend his crown in 2011, and the unbeaten Zarkandar, who Walsh was made to regret snubbing in favour of Sam Winner at last year's Festival in the JCB Triumph Hurdle.

Even the elite have off years

Walsh's failure to finish as top jockey in 2005 and 2007 illustrates that even the best riders, trainers and horses are vulnerable to the occasional nightmare Festival. Another example is provided by six-time top trainer Paul Nicholls' tough 2010 in which he celebrated just two winners, the shock value enhanced by Imperial Commander outshining his star duo Kauto Star and Denman to take the Gold Cup.

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Editor's Note: This article was written prior to the news that Kauto Star is only a 50/50 chance for the Festival. To read more about this from Kauto's trainer Paul Nicholls click here.

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