Handicappers' Corner: Ring out the old, bring in the new?

The Cheltenham Festival / Phil Turner / 02 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Al Ferof makes most appeal for the Arkle at the current prices.

"Al Ferof (c155p) still makes the most appeal at current odds for this contest, even though the gelding who pushed him so close at Sandown last month, For Non Stop (152), could manage only second at Newbury..."

January 1st marks happy birthday for our equine friends, and there is often a tendency to view leading jumpers in a different light once an extra year has been added to their age column, says Timeform Jumps Handicapper Phil Turner...

Of course, the now twelve-year-old Kauto Star (Timeform rating c181) has made a mockery of such age worries this term, but it is worth stressing that his memorable wins in the Betfair Chase and King George VI Chase both came over staying trips and it might have been a different story had he tried to repeat his 2005 and 2006 victories in the much shorter Tingle Creek Chase.

Indeed, historical evidence does suggest that younger blood is an asset when it comes to the top two-mile chasing prizes, which arguably doesn't bode well for Big Zeb (c173), who turned eleven on Sunday and is currently the highest-rated Timeform chaser in this division.

The statistics are certainly stacked against Colm Murphy's gelding as he bids to regain his Queen Mother Champion Chase crown at Cheltenham in March, having won the race in 2010 before finishing runner-up to Sizing Europe (c172) twelve months later.

Since the race's inaugural running in 1959, the great Moscow Flyer is the only horse to have regained his crown after losing it, whilst that second win in 2005 is also the last time an eleven-year-old has triumphed in the Wednesday showpiece at the Festival - another dual winner Skymas, in 1976, is the only other eleven-year-old to have won (though he did claim his second win at twelve!).

That said, Big Zeb doesn't know any of that and still has plenty of things going for him at present - he holds a two-one lead from his meetings with the aforementioned Sizing Europe, whilst he's now twice taken the measure of last season's leading Irish-trained speed novice chaser Noble Prince (c160). Admittedly his length-and-a-quarter defeat of the latter at level weights in the Dial-A-Bet Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas points to a much closer gap between the pair than their respective Timeform ratings might suggest, but Big Zeb was well on top at the death of a race which wasn't run at an end-to-end gallop. In addition, he'd successfully conceded 5 lb to the same rival when beating him by two lengths on his autumn comeback run and all the signs suggest he's returned every bit as good as ever.

One man who'll be hoping that age does begin to dull Big Zeb's speed is Barry Geraghty, who has formed a fine partnership with the gelding down the years (nine wins and five second places from fifteen starts) but will be claimed to ride Finian's Rainbow (c162p) for his boss Nicky Henderson come Cheltenham in March. In fact, Geraghty has already had to pledge his allegiance to the three-years younger Finian's Rainbow, who made his belated reappearance at Kempton some sixty minutes after Big Zeb had landed his third Dial-A-Bet win.

In truth, it was far from plain sailing for Finian's Rainbow and, at first glance, his last-gasp defeat of a below-par Wishfull Thinking (c153+) and the handicapper Oiseau de Nuit (c152) won't have the connections of either Big Zeb or Sizing Europe losing much sleep.

The bare facts of that result don't tell the whole story, however, as an uncharacteristic blunder at the fourth last put Finian's Rainbow on the back foot at a vital stage in what was a muddling race, whilst the turn of foot he displayed to overhaul the placed pair suggests there's still plenty of potential to work with - he remains by far the strongest home-trained contender for the Champion Chase at this stage.

Geraghty, of course, had another reason to be at Kempton on December 27, namely the hugely exciting novice chaser Sprinter Sacre (c154p), who lowered the colours of the hitherto unbeaten Peddlers Cross (c150p) in emphatic fashion. For all it was a very impressive display, the runner-up almost certainly wasn't at his best and there has been an over-reaction in the ante-post betting for the Arkle Chase on the back of it. Indeed, Al Ferof (c155p) still makes the most appeal at current odds for this contest, even though the gelding who pushed him so close at Sandown last month, For Non Stop (152), could manage only second to Cue Card (c154) at Newbury on New Year's Eve despite being in receipt of 7 lb.

The Irish team doesn't look all that strong for the Arkle at this stage, but it could be a different story in the RSA Chase, particularly if Timeform's highest-rated novice chaser Grands Crus (c158p) is aimed at the Cheltenham Gold Cup instead. Last Instalment (c152p) maintained his 100% start over fences when proving too strong for his owner's first string First Lieutenant (c148p) in the Grade 1 Fort Leney Chase at Leopardstown, and both could develop into live contenders for the Cheltenham race. Third-placed Allee Garde (c147), meanwhile, possibly has less scope for improvement than that pair, but he's looked such an assured jumper so far that he could mark his mark in valuable handicap company before the season is out.
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