Handicappers' Corner: Renewed confidence in Europe?

The Cheltenham Festival / Phil Turner / 06 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Sizing Europe again be crowned Champion Chaser at Cheltenham?

"Sizing Europe’s eight-length success is on a par with the pick of his two-mile form of last spring..."

The Celtic Tiger may more resemble a whimpering pussycat nowadays, particularly as the Eurozone crisis intensifies this week, but at least the Irish can still call the shots when it comes to the prestigious two-mile chasing division, according to Timeform handicapper Phil Turner...

Cheltenham's Queen Mother Champion Chase has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in the last two seasons, none more so than in 2011, when Sizing Europe (Timeform rating c172) led home a one, two, three, four for the Emerald Isle. Henry de Bromhead's stable star plundered another big prize on Saturday, when victory in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown took his tally on British soil to five wins from six attempts (that sole defeat coming when favourite for the 2008 Champion Hurdle).

In truth, the latest renewal of the Tingle Creek lost some of its lustre due to the absences of prominent home-trained contenders Finian's Rainbow (c161p) and Tataniano (c167), the latter reportedly out for the season now following an eleventh-hour injury setback. In addition, last season's leading novice chaser Wishfull Thinking (c162) again ruined his chance by racing too freely, which meant Tataniano's understudy Kauto Stone emerged as Sizing Europe's only serious rival. The likelihood is that Kauto Stone (c160) will be ideally suited by a return to further in time but, even so, it's reasonable to assume he ran to a similar level as when winning at Down Royal on his debut for Paul Nicholls last month. In addition, the next two home could both boast solid recent handicap form to their name, which all suggests Sizing Europe's eight-length success is on a par with the pick of his two-mile form of last spring (he's raced over longer trips in the interim).

Sizing Europe, however, still has some way to go to match the consistency of old rival Big Zeb (c173), who has finished out of the first two only once in seventeen completed starts over fences, with no less than eleven wins featuring during that sequence.

Admittedly, Big Zeb had to settle for the runner-up spot behind Sizing Europe when bidding to repeat his 2010 Queen Mother win at Cheltenham last March, but he's defeated his year-younger rival on both of their other meetings, notably when pipping him at the Punchestown Festival in April. In addition, he looked on good terms with himself when making a satisfactory winning comeback at Navan last month.

Another of Big Zeb's main rivals in recent years has been Master Minded (c173), with the score between the pair currently standing at two-two (though fans of the Irish gelding can argue it'd be four-nil in his favour but for jumping errors!). Connections of Master Minded, of course, had been planning to campaign him over longer trips this winter, though it wouldn't be a surprise to see him reverted to two miles at some stage, particularly as stable-companion Tataniano is now on the sidelines.

Looking further ahead, the Nicholls stable already looks to have a live contender on its hands for the 2013 Queen Mother Champion Chase, with Al Ferof (c155p), who maintained his 100% start over fences with victory in the newly-upgraded Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices' Chase over the same course and distance as the Tingle Creek earlier on Saturday's card. Although not everyone was impressed by the grey's neck defeat of For Non Stop (c152), the runner-up has long threatened to produce this sort of performance since joining Nick Williams and the form has a very strong look to it - the time compares well with the Tingle Creek (albeit helped by a much more even pace than in that race), whilst the first two pulled well clear of four horses who'd all won their most recent start over fences.

In addition, Al Ferof idled a shade after impressing greatly with how he'd travelled and jumped, so he's almost certainly better than the bare result suggests - indeed, he deserves to be our highest-rated novice chaser seen out so far and represents decent value in what already promises to be a vintage renewal of the Arkle at Cheltenham in March.

The other Grade 1 novice chase to be staged this weekend, the Drinmore at Fairyhouse, produced another top-notch prospect in Bog Warrior (150p), who showed that the likes of Grands Crus (c154p) and Bobs Worth (c142p) won't have things all their own way in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. The Tony Martin-trained Bog Warrior was his owner's second string in the Drinmore behind First Lieutenant (c140), but the chances are the latter gelding (who reportedly broke a blood vessel) would have struggled to contain him even without a terrible mistake at the eighth, which badly compromised his chance (he was eventually pulled up).

Gigginstown House Stud could have an even more exciting novice chase prospect in its colours than either Bog Warrior or First Lieutenant, however. Sir des Champs (c138P) made a seamless transition to fences when maintaining his unbeaten record in a maiden chase at Fairyhouse on Saturday and looks very much one to follow over the coming months.

The other race at Fairyhouse which could have ramifications for the big Festival meetings later in the season was the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novices' Hurdle, which saw the Willie Mullins-trained Sous Les Cieux (h143p) get the better of a good finish with useful Flat recruit Galileo's Choice (h142p), the pair of them deserving plenty of credit for pulling clear. They both appeal as likely types to fly the flag for Ireland come Cheltenham next March.
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