Handicappers' Corner: Long Run rated ahead of Kauto - you cannot be serious!

The Cheltenham Festival / Phil Turner / 28 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Phil argues that there are some parallels to draw between Long Run & Kauto and Federer & Nadal.

"It seems that the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March will be the pair’s final meeting and, as with that five-set epic at Wimbledon, things are delicately poised going into the decider."

Timeform Jumps handicapper Phil Turner attempts to justify the decision and argues that there are some parallels to draw between Long Run & Kauto and Federer & Nadal....

"The greatest I've ever seen", was how tennis legend John McEnroe described the epic 2008 Wimbledon Men's Final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.

By contrast, McEnroe's trademark catchphrase of "you cannot be serious!" could well be many people's reaction to the current Timeform ratings of National Hunt's two Grand Slam performers, Long Run (c182) and Kauto Star (c181), with the former 1 lb ahead despite the latter having beaten him in both of their meetings this term, and there are some parallels to draw from those two fierce tennis rivals.

It seems that the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March will be the pair's final meeting and, as with that five-set epic at Wimbledon, things are delicately poised going into the decider.

Kauto Star, like Federer, is rightly regarded as the best of his generation, a crowd pleaser who oozes class and has shown remarkable consistency to stay at the top for so long. Long Run, meanwhile, mirrors Nadal in that he is five years younger than his rival and has been supremely talented from the off, with his staying power increasingly proving an asset on the big day.

As at Wimbledon in 2008, the younger performer raced into a two-nil lead, with Long Run comprehensively defeating Kauto Star (into third place) in both the King George VI Chase and Cheltenham Gold Cup last season. However, just as Federer rallied to level the score after losing those first two sets, Long Run has since had to settle for second behind a rejuvenated Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase at Haydock and Kempton's Boxing Day showpiece this term. That record-breaking fifth King George win was the closest margin between the pair yet, with Long Run just a length and a quarter down on his older rival at the line as they pulled well clear of some high-class opposition in Captain Chris (c165) and Somersby (c164) up the straight.

Indeed, a mistake at the last by Long Run (his jumping generally wasn't quite so fluent as the sure-footed Kauto Star) arguably prevented him from finishing even closer still, whilst the stout manner in which he saw things out at Kempton also gives some hope as to him reversing the placings over two-and-a-half furlongs further at Cheltenham. In addition, the undulations and testing nature of Cheltenham often provides a wholly different test to the flat speed-oriented fare on offer at Kempton - in fact, rather like the difference between a clay and grass courts in tennis (Nadal leads Federer twelve-two on clay, whilst Federer has a two-one lead on grass).

Kauto Star, of course, coped fine with the demands of Prestbury Park when winning the Gold Cup there in 2007 and 2009, but it's fair to say that his very best performances have come at Kempton and he proved vulnerable (admittedly to top-notch rivals) in the 2008, 2010 and 2011 renewals of the Cheltenham showpiece.

Long Run, who has regained his 2010/11 peak rating of 182 having run just 2lb below that figure in the King George on Boxing Day, meanwhile, is clearly a more thorough stayer than seemed the case earlier in his career and was certainly strongest at the death in last season's Gold Cup, pulling seven and four lengths clear of Denman (now retired) and Kauto Star having been upsides that pair jumping the second last. Another factor which has, somewhat surprisingly, been overlooked in the aftermath of the latest King George is that Sam Waley-Cohen's amateur status was all too apparent up against Ruby Walsh riding at the top of his game on the winner. In truth, it is arguably a futile point to make given that Long Run is always going to be ridden by him, but the fact remains Waley-Cohen (for all he's a very competent pilot for one of his experience) is an amateur unable to claim against top professionals and that could prove costly when the margins are so tight.

Cheltenham should give Waley-Cohen more time to wind Long Run up to hit full stride, however, and it's telling that the reigning champion still just shades Kauto Star in the ante-post market for the 2012 Gold Cup. Fans of Long Run can take heart from the fact that Nadal recovered from losing the third and fourth sets in the 2008 Wimbledon Final to take the deciding set - albeit pushed all the way by Federer before prevailing by nine games to seven!

Novak Djokovic, of course, usurped the big two in tennis by carrying all before him in 2011 and outstanding novice chaser Grands Crus (c158p) could well upset the apple-cart too if allowed to take his chance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup as well - the RSA Chase remains the most likely option if the ante-post markets are anything to go by. David Pipe's grey maintained his 100% start over fences with a very impressive win in the Feltham earlier on Kempton's Boxing Day card, beating Silviniaco Conti (c156) and Bobs Worth (c153p), who are both very smart novices in their own right capable of winning big prizes before the season is out. The Feltham's time compares favourably with that posted by Kauto Star over the same trip, particularly as Grands Crus took over at the head of affairs a long way out on the back of a strong early pace, and this represents the best novice chase form of 2011/12 so far, in what continues to look a vintage crop of home-trained novice chasers.

Indeed, there were only three Irish-trained runners in the top twenty list of novice chasers in the latest edition of Timeform's Black Book, whilst the fact another Pipe inmate Notus de La Tour (c142) finished a close second to Blackstairmountain (c145) in the Grade 1 seventeen-furlong novice chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day is further proof that the British team currently hold the aces in that division - Notus de La Tour, likeable gelding though he is, had managed only third behind Walkon (c149p) in a non-graded novice chase at Exeter earlier in the month.
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