The Cheltenham Festival / David Stewart / 15 March 2011 /

David Stewart looks at the stats that count on Day Two at the Cheltenham Festival

Big Race
15:20 Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase
Flashstats: The stats give a strong edge to both previous winners of the race and shorter price winners which doesn't leave a lot of scope to find a value bet. Badsworth Boy (1983-85) remains the only previous triple winner and Master Minded bids to emulate that record and Big Zeb a second successive victory. Drilling further into the stats reveal that a prior win going into the race is a strong pointer so given we have to split the previous winners this just gives the edge to Master Minded. An additional factor is that the excellent Moscow Flyer has been the only horse aged ten or more to win the race in the last ten years (Big Zeb is ten) and the irresistible form shown by Ruby Walsh on the opening day is hardly a negative for Master Minded.
Nomination: Master Minded


Extra Race
13:30 141st Year of National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup
Flashstats: With 17 runners some serious filtering needs to be done. Irish-trained runners have not enjoyed too much success in this heat with just one winner from the last 10 runnings and the prevalent winning age is six or seven in recent years. That alone reduces the field to four but such are the prices you can cover them all and still make a profit. Certainly don't let a big price put you off - in the last ten years there have been winners at 40/1, 33/1, 33/1 and 25/1.
Nominations: Aberdale, Be There In Five, Double Pride, On His Own

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