Cheltenham Stats: Be on the money with Big Buck's

The Cheltenham Festival / David Stewart / 16 March 2011 / 1

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Been there and done it. Big Buck's and Paul Nicholls have an oustanding Cheltenham record

"Given there is no strong statistical bias to any of the bigger priced runners we simply have to stay loyal to the horse that has already been there and done it (twice) and our narrow vote goes to Big Buck's."

David Stewart crunches the numbers in order to point us in the right direction ahead of the Ladbrokes World Hurdle and Ryanair Chase.

Big Race - 15:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle
Flashstats: It's been billed as the match of the Festival but do the stats back that up ? Firstly, we are in an era of multiple winners of the race. Baracouda set the trend by winning successive races in 2002 and 2003 and then came along triple winner Inglis Drever successful in 2005, 2007 and 2008.

Big Buck's aims for three consecutive wins this year and the young pretender is Grands Crus. Age-wise there's nothing much to split the pair on stats with six and eight-year-olds enjoying a similar level of success in recent years. A win going into the race is a plus - but both qualify in that regard.

Irish trained runners haven't fared so well recently (although who knows after Wednesday's results?) and in terms of SP you are looking at a single figure price. Trainer-wise Paul Nicholls has won the race twice, and the Pipe stable (under the governorship of Martin) twice as well. So how on earth can we split the pair ? Given there is no strong statistical bias to any of the bigger priced runners we simply have to stay loyal to the horse that has already been there and done it (twice) and our narrow vote goes to Big Buck's.
Contender: Big Buck's

Extra Race - 14:40 Ryanair Chase
Flashstats: Older horses have a good record here and I like the trio of 10-year-olds to show the youngsters how it's done (Captain Cee Bee, the other 10-year-old, is a non runner). We have last year's winner Albertas Run on our side together with the well fancied Kalahari King and Voy Por Ustedes. Recent 10-year-old winners include Our Vic in 2008 and Fondmort in 2006.
Contenders: Albertas Run, Kalahari King, Voy Por Ustededs

Open a Betfair account today and back Big Bucks to win, if he doesn't we'll refund your bet

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(1)

John McFall | 17 March 2011

Good call in the ryanair; backed all three and wish I'd combined in forecasts! Come on big bucks now