The Cheltenham Festival / Simon Baker / 14 March 2011 /

Timeform's Simon Baker looks over the market for this year's leading trainer at the Festival...

Despite the defection of Binocular, Nicky Henderson still just shades favouritism at [3.40]. He probably has more horses going to the Festival with realistic chances than any other trainer and is just about a worthy favourite. Having said that, there is a sense that while Henderson may have a higher 'ceiling' in terms of the winners he may train at the Festival, he may also have a lower 'floor' than some of his rivals, given that a lot of his best chances are in some of the week's most competitive races.

The [3.50] available about Paul Nicholls could well look pretty big come Friday evening as, scanning his entries, he looks a surer bet to register at least three winners. Master Minded, Poquelin and Big Buck's all have outstanding claims in their respective races, while it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see him fare well in the Arkle (Ghizao), Supreme (Al Ferof) and Triumph (Sam Winner, Zarkandar). Historically, three winners has as often as not been enough (with the help of countback) to win the Festival top trainer title and given that Nicholls looks a pretty solid bet to record that many, the [3.55] is perhaps still on the big side.

The money in recent days has all been for Willie Mullins, who is now available at [4.7] to take the title for the first time. The shortening of the price about him is in part a reaction to the defection of Binocular, which leaves Hurricane Fly as the form pick in the Champion Hurdle. If Hurricane Fly wins tomorrow, then Mullins could well find himself top of the table come Tuesday evening, as Quevega is the most solid favourite of the entire Festival. Two winners on Tuesday will put him in pole position heading into the final three days of the Festival, when has several further good chances. Three winners looks a distinct possibility and that puts him firmly in the mix.

After the aforementioned trio, there is a sizeable gap back to Philip Hobbs at [16.0]. He is another for whom Tuesday could prove crucial with Menorah and Captain Chris both among the form and market principals in the Champion Hurdle and Arkle respectively. Wishfull Thinking is potentially his best chance of a winner all Festival in the Golden Miller, while Kilcrea Kim has a chance in the Albert Bartlett.

Tuesday is also going to be important for Alan King as Medermit, who is his best chance of a Festival winner, goes in the Arkle. If Bensalem justifies favouritism in the Spinal Research Handicap Chase then King is also looking at a realistic best-case scenario of two winners by Tuesday, which should offer the opportunity to trade from the current [18.5] available, but beyond that obvious winning opportunities are seemingly thin on the ground, with Smad Place and Oh Crick on Friday the only two that stick out.

David Pipe's yard tends to make less of an impact in the Championship events at the Festival, but that could change this year as Grands Crus looks a very real danger to the dominant Big Buck's. As ever, the yard should prove a force in handicaps, with the likes of Great Endeavour, Chartreux and Junior holding strong claims for their chosen assignments. Two winners look a realistic target for the yard, but the three or more likely to be needed for top trainer honours is a longshot, and the [18.0] available isn't obviously great value with that in mind.

Nigel Twiston-Davies sent out three winners at the Festival last year, countback all that separated him from eventual top trainer Nicky Henderson, and two of those three horses (Imperial Commander and Baby Run) are favourites to repeat the dose this time. Both have very solid claims, but beyond them there aren't really many obvious chances for the yard, and it could be that two winners on Friday is the best that can be hoped for.

All told, there isn't a standout bet in this market and stakes should probably be kept to a minimum. The [3.55] available about Paul Nicholls does look a touch on the big side, given that he has some of the meeting's most solid favourites. Similarly, Willie Mullins should arguably be a bit tighter to the two that head him in the market, given that he could well have two winners on the board by Tuesday evening.

Recommendations

Back Paul Nicholls @ [3.55] and Willie Mullins @ [4.7] to be Top Trainer at the Cheltenham Festival

Get the Timeform Jury's tips for every Channel 4 race at the Cheltenham Festival this week with Timeform TV Focus. Click HERE to find out more.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: