Cheltenham Festival Patterns: Il Duce can Power into the money

/ Rory Delargy / 12 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

The Open Meeting at Cheltenham has blossomed in recent seasons into a mid-season mini festival and the three days feature nine pattern contests starting with the Sharp Novices' Hurdle on Friday. There should be some early pointers to the big meeting in March as the corresponding event in 2008 produced four Festival winners - American Trilogy, Garde Champetre, Andytown and Imperial Commander, as well as a hatful of placed horses. Here's part one of the weekend's big race preview:

The Sharp Novices' Hurdle is a tricky contest with a number of contenders holding similar claims without any appearing to be stars in the making. Cootehill is easily the most experienced of these, having his second season and his 15th race over timber and it's eminently possible that his ringcraft alone will prove too much for his less battle hardened rivals, who include last year's Weatherby's Champion Bumper runner-up Some Present.

It's doubtful whether the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner would appreciate much easing of the ground however, and with plenty of rain around, I'd prefer to look elsewhere.

Some Present must be respected on his bumper form and his defeat by Sweeps Hill last time came in a farcical affair, but he did make to duck out at the second and that tempers confidence in his attitude to a degree. Paul Nicholls' Tito Bustillo could be anything and neither Secret Dancer nor William Hogarth can be ruled out in terms of form. The first named may be allowed to go off a fair bit bigger than his forecast price of 16/1 and he would make each-way appeal if that's the case.

The Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday looks one of the more open renewals in recent memory and few of the 20 declared runners can be written off in handicapping terms.

On the other hand, with the rain currently belting down here in Cheltenham (no expense spared by your correspondent), a number of the better fancied runners look likely to be inconvenienced by the ground, especially Poquelin, who won under Ruby Walsh at the Showcase on good to firm.

Others who would have appealed much more on a decent surface are Tarotino, Hold 'Em and From Dawn To Dusk. Horses in the field who would positively relish very soft ground at this trip are Ballyfitz, Tranquil Sea, Il Duce and topweight Our Vic. There has been support for the first two mentioned and it's doubtful whether much value remains at the new prices. It's possible that one of the other two could provide an each way bet though, especially as they are trading at inflated odds.

Il Duce has been placed in this event in both 2007 and 2008 for Alan King, but will be ignored by many who know little about his new trainer Renee Robeson. Despite the fact that she has trained with some success for many years, in fact it's still common for her to be incorrectly referred to as Pauline Robson.

For that reason alone, Il Duce is liable to be ignored in his bid to improve his admirable race record, and while he is likely to find one or two better handicapped, he can hit the frame once more at inflated odds. He's currently available to back at [60.0] on Betfair and could conceivably trade much higher. Back him small for a win and bigger in the place market, where I expect him to trade at a double figure price at some stage before the off. For those who want to follow Ruby Walsh in the race, I would strongly advise against backing Poquelin who he is booked to ride. It's very likely that he will switch to the soft ground loving Tatenen with his original mount either going to Christian Williams, or more likely, withdrawn.