Cheltenham Festival Long-Shots: Bellvano - Supreme Novices' Hurdle - Tuesday March 16

/ Will Hayler / 02 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Dunguib's odds-on quote is keeping every other horse's price high so what better race than the Supreme Novices' Hurdle to start Will Hayler's search for big-priced ante-post winners?

Never mind the Gold Cup or any of the other championship clashes that will take place over the Festival's gruelling four days, the one-horse market of the opening race threatens to make or break the betting week for many.

Recent Festival experiences tell me that although one might expect the big layers to take a view against Dunguib's prospects of maintaining his unbeaten record over hurdles, in practice the favourite's price is unlikely to drift in the final hours before racing as the weight of public money on track tends to be enough to pin down the Betfair price.

However, whether that would be enough for his fans to make him backable now at around [1.93] is an entirely different matter, given that there are still two weeks to go before the race and realistically he probably can't go off any shorter than [1.8] on the day.

Finding credible opposition isn't impossible, despite the fact that the likes of Rite of Passage and Peddlers Cross have been steered away to the Neptune. The unbeaten Oscar Whisky looks to be improving and Menorah's battering of a decent field in a quick time at Kempton is still a compelling piece of form despite his subsequent defeat at Ascot which still sends a shiver down my spine even thinking about it and hopefully Richard Johnson's too.

However, there's something about Bellvano (currently [38.0]), who finished behind Menorah at Kempton, that keeps drawing me to him at the prices. Rated very highly at home, Bellvano has had this race as his target since hacking up in a maiden hurdle at Newbury's Hennessy meeting.

He didn't look the same horse when showing his darker side on Boxing Day, but confirmed the earlier promise by displaying a fine turn of foot at Newbury again last time, idling once he had the race in safe keeping.

Bellvano could wait for the County Hurdle on the last day of the meeting, but Nicky Henderson yesterday seemed to be leaning towards sticking with the Supreme as the plan. Perhaps not surprisingly given that JP McManus is rumoured to have backed him months ago for the race. He can be backed at [38.0] on Betfair and a more tempting [22.0] without the favourite.