Ante-Post Betting / Jamie Lynch / 18 January 2012 / 1

Crime doesn't pay, as Tony Thompson found out, but there's no harm in a little looting where the ante-post markets are concerned, and Timeform's Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch thinks he's found one for Cheltenham.

Poor Anthony Worrall Thompson. What has been stolen from him is far more serious than the negligible items he trousered in Tesco. I'm talking, of course, about his hyphen. Maybe the culprit was Alice Plunkett's husband, the Fox-Pitt, or perhaps it was market rival Fearnley-Whittingstall, but obviously somebody somewhere along the line has subtly lifted Wozza's double-barrel maker, otherwise why the need for the pretentious treble name when Anthony Thompson or even Tony Thompson would do just fine? Ah, that's why. Tony Thompsons fix your plumbing; they don't make celebrity chefs.

Who amongst us hasn't swiped a Mars Bar or a highlighter pen or Blu-Ray disc player at some low point in our lives? Where Tony went wrong wasn't necessarily in the action, but the reaction. Yes, we all had a laugh because it was a celebrity getting caught with their pants down, but we'd have left it at that and moved on if Tony hadn't played the victim card. As soon as TT purposely crossed the line from pantomime baddie to tortured martyr, in a flurry of statements and interviews, the public perception changed, and we in racing know all about the importance of public perception.

It's odd that, on the one hand, racing is at pains to percept to the public that corruption and criminality couldn't be further from our sport, while on the other hand subconsciously fostering the myth by the widespread use of villainous expressions within the racing vernacular. Nicking a race, burgling value, pinching a lead, murdering opposition, plundering a prize, stealing an advantage, each-way thievery, mugged on the line, blackmailing a furlong, embezzling a gap, manslaughtering a handicap mark, twocking the rail. Okay, so I got a bit carried away towards the end, but hopefully you get the idea.

In a lawful way, but wearing a mask all the same, we're going to now attempt some burglary and thievery of our own; let the formbook be our crowbar and the Supreme Novices' Hurdle our Tesco cheese counter.

'Stats, shmats' is my default maxim, but it's in the rules that whenever doing an ante-post preview there must always be some statistical analysis, and my research threw up a beauty; only it turns out it's not a beauty, lacking much originality or relevance, but I'm shoehorning it in anyway to give my workings at least a sheen of credibility. You (I to be precise) might have thought that the top two-mile novice at the Festival would favour the ex-Flat horses, but apparently it doesn't. Of the last ten Supreme Novice winners, only Ebaziyan (40/1) and Arcalis (20/1) had done their grounding on the Flat. That nugget isn't exactly gold, though, considering, of the ten main Supreme Novice contenders for this year, only Galileo's Choice has done his grounding on the Flat. Still, one down.

We're in the market for burgling value, and there's none in Darlan, whose row of 1s mask some pretty flimsy form. Two down. The Tolworth Hurdle, which Colour Squadron generously gave to Captain Conan, wasn't very good. Four down. Montbazon was beaten by Colour Squadron. Five down. Tetlami is seemingly further down the Henderson pecking order than both Darlan and Captain Conan. Six down. The Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas won by Cash And Go was arguably less of a Grade 1 than the Tolworth. And then there were three...

What crime can we pin on Steps To Freedom? Fraud, perhaps. It's very circumstantial, wholly unsubstantiated and probably unfair, but I'm beginning to wonder whether Steps To Freedom is a top-class horse or just doing an impression of a top-class horse. He's convincing enough so far, more Bremner than Yarwood, and he'll keep it up for most of the Supreme, in which he'll travel like the proverbial W of G, but, for me, there's still a question of what's really under the bonnet. Think back to Cheltenham in November when he scrambled home from Prospect Wells and Ericht, two horses who've subsequently looked a bit soft themselves.

More research: on Timeform ratings, the average winning performance in the Supreme is 147. Simonsig is already rated 153. It looks a very solid 153. He's 153 because leading novice Fingal Bay is 156, and Simonsig matched him for nearly two-and-a-half miles at Sandown, when the pair finished clear of Barbatos, whose form is on a par with most of the other Supreme Novice contenders. This should be where the 'but' part comes in, only I'm struggling to find one. Dropping to two miles, in what's invariably a strongly-run two miles for the Supreme, promises to suit him well, and Simonsig probably needs backing - he ought to be outright favourite.

Cats, bucks, the red-eyed tree frog, Phillips Idowu, the battery in my Skoda, Tony Thompson when the store alarm goes off, and Cinders And Ashes; all things that jump really well. Since he clouted the fifth on his hurdling debut at Ascot, which cost him any chance against Broadbackbob that day, Cinders And Ashes has been exceptionally slick to the point that you'd notice, when it's not something you generally notice in hurdles races. That will count for an awful lot in the Supreme. Easy wins at Aintree and Haydock have been a taster of what's to come, remembering also his ability in bumpers (fifth in the main event at Cheltenham), and if he does what I think he'll do in the Rossington Main back at Haydock on Saturday, a race rebranded as the Supreme Trial, then he'll be a shorter price for the Supreme than he is now. With respect to Simonsig, but not much else apart from Simonsig, Cinders And Ashes is the one. Give a man some knocked-off cheese, feed him for a day. Teach a man to burgle value, feed him for a lifetime.

Recommendation
Back Cinders And Ashes @ [17.0] for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle
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1. george | 18 January 2012

   hi jamie a will b backing him

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