Ryanair Chase Betting: King's Medermit hard to crab

Ante-Post Betting / Adam Brookes / 30 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Medermit has fewer questions to answer than most.

"While he didn't live up to market expectations in last year's Arkle, Medermit has proved himself better than ever in the ensuing period..."

With the Cheltenham Festival only six weeks away, Timeform's Adam Brookes previews the Ryanair Chase on Thursday March 15 and highlights a runner he believes to be value at the current prices...

With recent performances fresh in the memory, the first place to start is with the admirably versatile/consistent Somersby, who put up a joint career-best when landing a first Grade 1 in the VC Chase at Ascot. First-time cheekpieces worked that day and he heads to the Ryanair (surely a more suitable race than the Champion Chase over 2m in which he was beaten last season) as a major player, but the the fact that his four 160+ performances have been achieved at Ascot (3) and Kempton, means he'll remain vulnerable.

His biggest threat according to the current market is Noble Prince, winner of last year's Jewson and already a better horse this season. He was never going to match Big Zeb over two miles (twice finished second to him this term) and again shaped as if in need of return to further when second to Blazing Tempo at Fairyhouse last time (has had a minor wind op since). The likely better ground come March will suit but, as with the tough mare who beat him that day, he will need to raise his game again to ruffle the feathers of some of the more established performers.

With Realt Dubh missing since May, Rubi Light is likely to be Ireland's other leading hope. The seven-year-old finished third in the Ryanair last year and showed he wasn't reliant on soft ground that day. He may not have truly got home on his first try at three miles last time, when suffering a wide-margin defeat at the hands of Synchronised, and is clearly better judged on his form over the Ryanair trip, so he deserves his place towards the head of the betting.

The first and second from last season's Ryanair, Albertas Run and Kalahari King, will go into this year's race with question marks over them. Albertas Run, who has two Ryanairs and a RSA Chase to his name, has been kept off the track since winning the Old Roan in October owing to a leg injury and could yet go for the Gold Cup, whilst Kalahari King, who's Festival record is no less impressive (in frame in the Supreme, Arkle, Champion Chase and Ryanair), reportedly cracked a splint bone when pulled up in November's Amlin Chase at Ascot on his latest outing.

Nicky Henderson won the race with Fondmort in 2006 and his Riverside Theatre is already 10 lb superior to that horse ever was according to Timeform figures. Riverside Theatre has been absent for even longer than the aforementioned pair, however, since his win in February's Betfair at Ascot to be precise, and whilst he's said to be near a return, it remains to be seen whether he can produce his A-game come Cheltenham (only fifth in 2010 Arkle and has raced predominantly on flatter tracks).

Paul Nicholls' strongest representative looks to be Kauto Stone. Kauto Star's half-brother has had only two starts for his new trainer since arriving from France, readily winning a Grade 2 at Down Royal before bettering that form when second to Sizing Europe in the Tingle Creek, but has only ever raced on ground good to soft or worse. The trainer may also be represented by last year's beaten favourite Poquelin (loves the course and distance and, for all he may not be out of the top drawer, makes appeal each-way at current odds) and Aerial (has to improve a lot), second and fourth respectively in the same handicap on Festival Trials Day.

That pair's Prestbury Park conqueror was The Giant Bolster, who slung his name into the ring with an aggressive performance notable for how well he jumped (has fenced poorly in the past). Yet, for all that he's on the up and effective over course and distance (now won twice over it), he will do well to repeat the same tactics against better horses.

Another course-lover to enter the Ryanair picture on Festival Trials Day was former PP Gold Cup hero Little Josh, who shaped well for a long way in the Argento Chase having been off for a year. The return to 21f will suit but he needs to find improvement from somewhere to match the leading form principals, comments that also apply, albeit to a lesser extent, to another winner of that prestigious course handicap, Great Endeavour.

With the Hobbs pair Wishfull Thinking and Captain Chris (would have strong chance on best form) seemingly having big problems at present and Gauvain becoming unpredictable, we turn our attentions to one who has very few chinks his armour.

While he didn't live up to market expectations when finishing behind the aforementioned Captain Chris and Realt Dubh in last year's Arkle, Medermit has proved himself better than ever in the ensuing period (second to Quantititveeasing in a very competitive course-and-distance handicap last time). His reliability and assured jumping are real strengths, and it's worth noting that second-season chasers have won three of the seven renewals of the race.

The race now known as the Ryanair Chase has been dominated by Britain's leading National Hunt trainers since its inaugural running in 2005 with Nicky Henderson, David Pipe and Nigel Twiston-Davies all adding themselves to a roll of honour twice engraved with the names Nicholls and O'Neill. Bar Hobbs, the most obvious omission from that list is Alan King and it could just be that in Medermit, yet to finish out of the frame in nine completed starts over the larger obstacles, he has the horse to do something about it.

Recommendation

Back Medermit @ [19.0] in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham