RSA Chase 2012: Crus a cut above the competition

Ante-Post Betting / David Cleary / 29 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Grands Crus won impressively at Kempton on Boxing Day

"Grands Crus himself has been most impressive in his races over fences so far. He'll clearly have the best form going into the RSA and although he might be found out by a thorough slog at three miles, he appears to have few other chinks in his armour."

David Cleary assesses the ante-post market for this year's RSA Chase and struggles to get away from David Pipe's [3.75] favourite...

The non-appearance of Grands Crus in the Argento Chase at Cheltenham increases the likelihood he will turn up in this race, rather than take on open company in the Gold Cup itself.

Given that probability, the question is, whether Grands Crus should be taken on at what seems sure to be a short price. At first glance there doesn't seem much mileage in opposing him. Even champion trainer Paul Nicholls isn't keen to take Grands Crus on - he has an obvious RSA Chase candidate in Silviniaco Conti, a horse he's spoken of as a future Gold Cup contender, but after being brushed aside by Grands Crus at Kempton on Boxing day, Nicholls isn't keen on repeating the experience at Cheltenham.

The other significant horse to contest the Feltham at Kempton was Bobs Worth, who seems likely to run in the RSA, whether or not Grands Crus turns up. Bobs Worth showed his inexperience that day, not jumping well enough on a track that wasn't ideal for him anyway. He should get valuable further experience in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot next month and a convincing display there clearly will see him shorten in the market, even in the face of Grands Crus.

Silviniaco Conti's trainer is likely to be represented by Join Together, who has made a good start as a chaser. He started the season seeming more likely to be a National Hunt Chase candidate but a defeat of Mossley and Champion Court (more likely to run in the Jewson) at Cheltenham in December marked him down as a serious contender for this.

Irish stables had a one-two in this race last season, rather against expectations, and they could be well represented, at least numerically this time round, though most of the likely Irish runners have multiple engagements and are either trained by Willie Mullins or owned by Gigginstown House Stud or both - a punting nightmare in traditional ante-post markets.

Last Instalment, First Lieutenant, Sir des Champs, Lambro and Bog Warrior all offer a smart level of form with the potential for more to come. Bog Warrior's wide-margin win in the Drinmore at Fairyhouse is probably the best piece of form, though his task was eased by the bad mistake First Lieutenant made that day.

First Lieutenant was then beaten by Last Instalment at Leopardstown at Christmas but there is a good chance the return to Cheltenham and the step up to three miles could reinvigorate him. First Lieutenant won the Baring Bingham at last year's Festival, albeit a little fortunately, and that form has been boosted by the exploits of those to chase him home that day.

Sir des Champs was a recent winner at Leopardstown and represents the stable of Mullins, which has a fine record in this race, though is apparently more likely to go for the Jewson. If there were signs that Lambro were to be aimed at this, he would certainly be of interest, having done well over fences so far despite the trip. The Dr P. J. Moriarty at Leopardstown next month will give a much clearer idea of the pecking order among the Irish-trained entries.

Grands Crus himself has been most impressive in his races over fences so far. He'll clearly have the best form going into the RSA and although he might be found out by a thorough slog at three miles, he appears to have few other chinks in his armour. As for a bet against him, there is something to be said for the chance each way of First Lieutenant at [17.0] to win and [4.4] to place, in the expectation the return to Cheltenham will see his form take a step up.

Key dates
Towton Novices' Chase, Wetherby, February 4
Betfair Novices' Chase, Newbury, February 11
Dr P. J. Moriarty Novice Chase, Leopardstown, February 12
Reynoldstown Novices' Chase, Ascot, February 18
Ten Up Novice Chase, Navan, February 19
Next declaration stage, February 21