Ante-Post Betting / Adam Brookes / 13 February 2012 /

With a "Championship Acca" market now open regarding which of the four Cheltenham Festival feature races will be won by reigning champions, Timeform's Adam Brookes discusses his favoured permuation...

The feature on the opening day is the Champion Hurdle and, with his nearest rivals on Timeform ratings likely to head elsewhere (Peddlers Cross to the Arkle and Oscar Whisky to the World Hurdle), Hurricane Fly looks highly likely to successfully justify favouritism (currently trades at [1.96]). He ran to a figure 1 lb higher than for last year's Festival win when coasting home in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown (his first start on heavy going) at the end of last month, which suggests he may even be improved this year and he is sure to be suited by a return to good ground (unbeaten in three starts in such conditions). Hurricane Fly wins. Comfortably.

Wednesday's showpiece is the Champion Chase, in which Sizing Europe ([2.3] to win the race) deserves his position at the head of the market rated, as he is, 4 lb clear of nearest rival Somersby, who is much more likely to head to the Ryanair. However, as pointed out elsewhere (Champion Chase: Big Zeb worth chance to bounce back at odds), he is by no means a certainty with Big Zeb likely to bounce back from a lacklustre effort last time and second-season chaser Finian's Rainbow rated only 5 lb inferior to Henry de Bromhead's charge. Sizing Europe will probably win, but there's a possibility he won't.

There might be an overwhelming feeling of déjà vu on the Thursday as the incomparable Big Buck's will again take centre stage in his bid for a fourth consecutive World Hurdle, a feat for which he is currently trading at ([1.63] to achieve. Paul Nicholls' undisputed champion has 5 lb and a '+' over nearest rival and only serious threat Oscar Whisky on Timeform ratings and, with a Prestbury Park record that reads six wins from seven starts (only defeat came over fences) he looks infallible.

While the market has acknowledged that the three big guns already mentioned hold standout claims in their respective races, Friday's Gold Cup is not so straightforward with both Long Run and former dual winner Kauto Star featured in a number of the permutations on offer. Just 1 lb separates Long Run ([3.25] to win the Gold Cup) and Kauto Star ([5.3] to land the race for the third time) in favour of the former, though it is perhaps worth stating the latter was rated some 10 lb higher in Chasers & Hurdlers 2009/10. After a below-par spell last season, Kauto Star has been nothing short of heroic in defeating his five-years-younger rival in the Betfair Chase and King George this time round, but it's going to take a mammoth effort to repel Long Run once more, with the Cheltenham hill likely to play into the defending champion's hands. Long Run will win. But narrowly. And after a prolonged battle.

Of the win doubles, the Hurricane Fly/Big Buck's combination looks the most likely to come off but it hasn't escaped the market and the [3.2] on offer is merely fair in correlation to the prices of the individual horses to win their respective races on both Betfair and with the bookies (taking into account the best odds available). That said, while the current price for adding Long Run to the bet is by no means more lucrative, with the first two legs looking nigh on certainties, the current price of [9.2] for all three to emerge victorious is likely to look very generous come the morning of Friday March 16.

Recommendation

Back HurrFly / BigBucks / LongRun @ [9.2] in the "Championship Acca" market

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