Ante-Post Betting / Rory Delargy / 14 March 2011 / 1

With Cheltenham 2011 only a week away, Rory Delargy leaves us under no illusions about the Champion Bumper...

The Champion Bumper has historically been a fairly easy race for bettors to approach. Find an Irish runner aged five or six, preferably trained by Willie Mullins, who has proven stamina, has won his last race and hope that you've picked the right one.

Willie, bless him, has tried to make this puzzle more difficult by trying to saddle the entire field for the last few seasons. If that move made life hard for punters, then last year's race must have bamboozled them entirely. Cue Card - wrong age, wrong nationality, wrong trainer, wrong jockey, wrong trip, hell's teeth, he might as well have been the wrong colour - it seems the only way of finding the winner of the bumper these days is to actually watch the horses run!

The Irish challenge in this race used to be formidable, and while it would be harsh to say that the challenge from o'er the water this year is weak, it certainly has been the quietest year I can remember in terms of hyperbole from those quarters.

Mullins has seven entered, but two of those, Twigline and Toostrong have run out of time for prep runs and won't be making the final cut, while another pair are being saved for other days, leaving a probable trio of Allure of Illusion, Lord Gale and Tusa Eire.

The first-named is surely the most ridiculous favourite at the entire Festival. A half-brother to Blackstairmountain, but by the less-than-robust Captain Rio, Allure of Illusion won a modest bumper at Killarney in unimpressive fashion and didn't even look the best horse in the race, never mind the whole island, yet some firms have him as 8/1 jolly. Don't be tempted by him, even at a slightly better [11.0] on Betfair.

It's more likely, based on racecourse impressions, that Lord Gale is the best of Mullins' runners, for all the rumour mill suggests otherwise. He can be backed at [23.0] on the exchange, and does make some appeal, especially as jockey bookings may make him look less than a second string come the day. Tusa Eire is a mudlark and is unlikely to get his ground.

Is that the best the Irish have to offer, though? In my opinion, not by some way, with both Raise The Beat (Colm Murphy) and Star Neuville (Shark Hanlon) having stronger claims, and preferred in that order. Both have typically attractive historical profiles for this contest, having had plenty of experience and will arrive at Cheltenham fresh from a break.

Star Neuville was due to run in what is usually the best pre-Cheltenham bumper run in the UK only for the prestigious meeting at Newbury to be abandoned in tragic circumstances. Had he lined up for the rescheduled version, he would have met Ericht, who himself put down a strong marker, but more of that one later.

Star Neuville has improved with each run and quickly put his race to bed under a more orthodox front-running ride at Leopardstown in December. He has been amateur-ridden to date (by sporting owner Barry Connell on his debut) but Hanlon had booked McCoy for Newbury and believes he will have the champion's services next week. If so, he will almost certainly attract a flood of patriotic support, ensuring he starts much shorter than a current price of [14.5] on Betfair.

Raise The Beat (trading at [16.5]) is in his second season and has improved greatly to post a couple of wins on top of the ground, before wisely being kept away from winter going. He is in very good hands and, although he needs to improve, he will appreciate the likely fast conditions at the end of day two of the Festival.

So, we've sorted out the Irish challenge, but have we found the winner? Probably not, I must say, as the most exciting bumper performers I've seen this season have been Nicky Henderson's Ericht, and the Warren Greatrex trained Knight Pass.

The former tops the ratings, and the fact that Henderson is considering running him speaks volumes, as this is not a race which the Seven Barrows handler favours, despite saddling a couple of runners-up in the shape of Inca and Trabolgan. The few runners he's had since strike me as heading to Cheltenham at the behest of their owners, but that won't be the case with Bridget Hanbury in whose colours Ericht runs.

Bridget and husband Christopher have had some fine bumper talent down the years but have been happy to allow Henderson to nurture that talent in the way he sees fit (they have had their share of Festival success, of course with Stormyfairweather taking back-to-back Cathcarts in 1999 and 2000). Should Henderson decide to take a chance on Ericht next week, he will look a worthy favourite.

But if there is one horse who looks like he could be a superstar, a horse to grace the Festival for years to come, that horse is Knight Pass. Wins at Sandown and Southwell leave him with something to find on form, but the manner of those victories was striking (leading to him heading the market at [8.4]), and he hasn't had to come out of cruise control. He strikes me as a horse with several unused gears and I expect him to show exactly what he's capable of next Wednesday. That could be something very special.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

1. Colin Phillips | 10 March 2011

   Very nice analysis, Rory.

   Thanks very much.

   Colin

:

:

:

?

: