Arkle Chase Betting: Let the heart rule the great big head

Ante-Post Betting / Jamie Lynch / 14 February 2012 / 1 Comments

Can Peddlers Cross turn the tables on Sprinter Sacre? Jamie thinks so.

"Peddlers Cross...very nearly was a champion, beaten only by the unbeatable Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle, and he'd done much the same thing as Sprinter Sacre has in two chases at Bangor prior to Kempton."

The anatomy of the horse, the hype of a horse and the form of a horse all get considered in Jamie Lynch's analysis of the big players in the Arkle...

Have you seen the size of Sprinter Sacre's head!? Never mind his agility and ability, when Sprinter Sacre won at Kempton, the thing that struck an oddball like me most of all was the calibre of his cranium. Stunning. It isn't necessarily out of proportion with the rest of his big, rangy body, but whichever way you cut it - and it would take several industrial saws and nine days if it had to be cut through - Sprinter Sacre has an impressively big head.

Talking of cutting heads, like you probably did, I watched the Inside Nature's Giants one about the racehorse, albeit behind a cushion for the gory bits, and nowhere there did Mark Evans make any correlation between head size and performance. Maybe he missed a trick. Maybe a bigger-than-average horse head equals a bigger-than-average horse brain, which maybe translates to a better-than-average use of horsepower and quicker-thinking when it comes to getting from one side of a fence to the other.

This is utter rubbish, of course, because in my years as an on-track reporter for Timeform I saw some noticeably large racing heads and, of those, only Persian Punch and Sir Michael Stoute were proven to be equally big on ability as they were on collar size.

The market suggests the Arkle might be a head-to-head; a re-match from Kempton over Christmas. If it was literally a head-to-head, butting as nature intended, then Sprinter Sacre would embarrass Peddlers Cross all over again, but we're talking about racing, we're talking about a different day and, more likely than not, we're talking about a different Peddlers Cross from the one who never really picked his feet up at Kempton.

Hypothetically, let's say whatever wasn't quite right with Peddlers Cross that day came to light pre-race and he was withdrawn: Sprinter Sacre would have had a jog round to beat Harry Hunt by six furlongs and everybody would have said that Old Big 'Ed, though visually impressive, has beaten little or nothing over fences so far and still has something to prove with the Arkle in mind up against horses with superior hurdling form such as Peddlers Cross. The brilliant Barry Geraghty has fuelled the fire to an extent with his glowing praise for the horse, massaging Sprinter Sacre's ego - as if his head isn't big enough already - so that the legend of Sprinter Sacre has almost overtaken the material Sprinter Sacre; and the ante-post betting has swayed the same way.

I'm not saying that Sprinter Sacre won't be a champion, I'm just trying to say that he's not there yet. Peddlers Cross, on the other hand, very nearly was a champion, beaten only by the unbeatable Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle, and he'd done much the same thing as Sprinter Sacre has in two chases at Bangor prior to Kempton. I'm also not blind to the fact that I'm doing what all self-respecting, self-righteous, self-destructing 'pundits' do by flying in the face of the evidence and going contrary - or think I'm going contrary - to popular belief by tipping the slayed rather than the slayer from their latest clash, but I genuinely believe that Sprinter Sacre shouldn't be favourite over Peddlers Cross in the Arkle when taking into account the bigger picture rather than the single snapshot from Kempton.

Something else I'm aware of, even though it might not have sounded like it so far, is that there are other heads poking into the Arkle picture. The problem with Cue Card and Menorah is that I can't envisage their heads not having a close encounter with the turf at some point in a high-pressure Arkle, but there's Al Ferof's handsome head to consider. Al Ferof has the best chasing form so far, but then again he's the only one who's had the opportunity to post a big rating, courtesy of his assignment against the older two-milers in the Victor Chandler. The sound-jumping, Cheltenham-savvy Al Ferof is a banker to be in the first three - odds against in the place market looks a gift - but one or both of Peddlers Cross and Sprinter Sacre could be really special over fences, and, at the prices, my money is with Peddlers.

The Arkle is going to be thrilling, and it's going to be close. It could come down to a bob of the head. If that's the case, Sprinter Sacre is home and hosed.

Recommendation
Back Peddlers Cross @ [4.6] in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham

Comments (1)

1. Jonathan da Silva | 15 February 2012

   I may not disagree with the conclusion due to other reasons but part of your full picture appears to be largely irrelevant to being a near top tree chaser, hurdling form.

   Sure there is a correlation in that a 90 rated hurdler won't be a 150 chaser very often but.